The impact of baseline [−2]proPSA-related indices on the prediction of pathological reclassification at 1 year during active surveillance for low-risk prostate cancer: the Japanese multicenter study cohort

PURPOSE: Active surveillance (AS) is one potential solution to avoiding the overtreatment of favorable prostate cancer. By handling the AS strategy more safely, tumor aggressiveness may be evaluated more accurately. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive impact of baseline prostate-specific antigen (PSA) isoform [−2]proPSA (p2PSA)-related indices on the pathological reclassification at 1 year during an AS program. METHODS: Between 2002 and 2003, 134 males diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer were registered in the Japanese multicenter study cohort as candidates for AS, and 118 (88 %) males actually proceeded to AS. Of the 118 patients, the 67 that underwent protocol biopsy at 1 year after beginning AS were enrolled in the present study. The predictive significance of various baseline clinicopathological features and p2PSA-related indices on pathological reclassification at 1 year after beginning AS were investigated. RESULTS: The pathological reclassification rate was 37.3 %. According to the univariate analysis, prostate volume (p = 0.049), number of biopsy cores (p = 0.047), percentage of positive biopsy cores (p = 0.023), p2PSA to free PSA ratio (%p2PSA) (p = 0.003) and prostate health index (phi) (p = 0.010) at baseline were significantly different between the reclassification and non-reclassification groups. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, baseline %p2PSA (p = 0.008) and phi (p = 0.008) were the only independent predictive factors for pathological upgrade at 1 year after AS commencement. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline %p2PSA and phi may predict the pathological reclassification at 1 year after starting AS, which could be due to the under detection of clinically significant prostate cancer at AS enrollment.