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Tracking Socioeconomic Vulnerability Using Network Analysis: Insights from an Avian Influenza Outbreak in an Ostrich Production Network

BACKGROUND: The focus of management in many complex systems is shifting towards facilitation, adaptation, building resilience, and reducing vulnerability. Resilience management requires the development and application of general heuristics and methods for tracking changes in both resilience and vuln...

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Autores principales: Moore, Christine, Cumming, Graeme S., Slingsby, Jasper, Grewar, John
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3909050/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24498004
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086973
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author Moore, Christine
Cumming, Graeme S.
Slingsby, Jasper
Grewar, John
author_facet Moore, Christine
Cumming, Graeme S.
Slingsby, Jasper
Grewar, John
author_sort Moore, Christine
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The focus of management in many complex systems is shifting towards facilitation, adaptation, building resilience, and reducing vulnerability. Resilience management requires the development and application of general heuristics and methods for tracking changes in both resilience and vulnerability. We explored the emergence of vulnerability in the South African domestic ostrich industry, an animal production system which typically involves 3–4 movements of each bird during its lifetime. This system has experienced several disease outbreaks, and the aim of this study was to investigate whether these movements have contributed to the vulnerability of this system to large disease outbreaks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The ostrich production system requires numerous movements of birds between different farm types associated with growth (i.e. Hatchery to juvenile rearing farm to adult rearing farm). We used 5 years of movement records between 2005 and 2011 prior to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). These data were analyzed using a network analysis in which the farms were represented as nodes and the movements of birds as links. We tested the hypothesis that increasing economic efficiency in the domestic ostrich industry in South Africa made the system more vulnerable to outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). Our results indicated that as time progressed, the network became increasingly vulnerable to pathogen outbreaks. The farms that became infected during the outbreak displayed network qualities, such as significantly higher connectivity and centrality, which predisposed them to be more vulnerable to disease outbreak. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taken in the context of previous research, our results provide strong support for the application of network analysis to track vulnerability, while also providing useful practical implications for system monitoring and management.
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spelling pubmed-39090502014-02-04 Tracking Socioeconomic Vulnerability Using Network Analysis: Insights from an Avian Influenza Outbreak in an Ostrich Production Network Moore, Christine Cumming, Graeme S. Slingsby, Jasper Grewar, John PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: The focus of management in many complex systems is shifting towards facilitation, adaptation, building resilience, and reducing vulnerability. Resilience management requires the development and application of general heuristics and methods for tracking changes in both resilience and vulnerability. We explored the emergence of vulnerability in the South African domestic ostrich industry, an animal production system which typically involves 3–4 movements of each bird during its lifetime. This system has experienced several disease outbreaks, and the aim of this study was to investigate whether these movements have contributed to the vulnerability of this system to large disease outbreaks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The ostrich production system requires numerous movements of birds between different farm types associated with growth (i.e. Hatchery to juvenile rearing farm to adult rearing farm). We used 5 years of movement records between 2005 and 2011 prior to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). These data were analyzed using a network analysis in which the farms were represented as nodes and the movements of birds as links. We tested the hypothesis that increasing economic efficiency in the domestic ostrich industry in South Africa made the system more vulnerable to outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). Our results indicated that as time progressed, the network became increasingly vulnerable to pathogen outbreaks. The farms that became infected during the outbreak displayed network qualities, such as significantly higher connectivity and centrality, which predisposed them to be more vulnerable to disease outbreak. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taken in the context of previous research, our results provide strong support for the application of network analysis to track vulnerability, while also providing useful practical implications for system monitoring and management. Public Library of Science 2014-01-31 /pmc/articles/PMC3909050/ /pubmed/24498004 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086973 Text en © 2014 Moore et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Moore, Christine
Cumming, Graeme S.
Slingsby, Jasper
Grewar, John
Tracking Socioeconomic Vulnerability Using Network Analysis: Insights from an Avian Influenza Outbreak in an Ostrich Production Network
title Tracking Socioeconomic Vulnerability Using Network Analysis: Insights from an Avian Influenza Outbreak in an Ostrich Production Network
title_full Tracking Socioeconomic Vulnerability Using Network Analysis: Insights from an Avian Influenza Outbreak in an Ostrich Production Network
title_fullStr Tracking Socioeconomic Vulnerability Using Network Analysis: Insights from an Avian Influenza Outbreak in an Ostrich Production Network
title_full_unstemmed Tracking Socioeconomic Vulnerability Using Network Analysis: Insights from an Avian Influenza Outbreak in an Ostrich Production Network
title_short Tracking Socioeconomic Vulnerability Using Network Analysis: Insights from an Avian Influenza Outbreak in an Ostrich Production Network
title_sort tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3909050/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24498004
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086973
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