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The debate on the prognostic value of earthquake foreshocks: A meta-analysis

The hypothesis that earthquake foreshocks have a prognostic value is challenged by simulations of the normal behaviour of seismicity, where no distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks can be made. In the former view, foreshocks are passive tracers of a tectonic preparatory process...

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Autor principal: Mignan, Arnaud
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3924212/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24526224
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep04099
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author Mignan, Arnaud
author_facet Mignan, Arnaud
author_sort Mignan, Arnaud
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description The hypothesis that earthquake foreshocks have a prognostic value is challenged by simulations of the normal behaviour of seismicity, where no distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks can be made. In the former view, foreshocks are passive tracers of a tectonic preparatory process that yields the mainshock (i.e., loading by aseismic slip) while in the latter, a foreshock is any earthquake that triggers a larger one. Although both processes can coexist, earthquake prediction is plausible in the first case while virtually impossible in the second. Here I present a meta-analysis of 37 foreshock studies published between 1982 and 2013 to show that the justification of one hypothesis or the other depends on the selected magnitude interval between minimum foreshock magnitude m(min) and mainshock magnitude M. From this literature survey, anomalous foreshocks are found to emerge when m(min) < M − 3.0. These results suggest that a deviation from the normal behaviour of seismicity may be observed only when microseismicity is considered. These results are to be taken with caution since the 37 studies do not all show the same level of reliability. These observations should nonetheless encourage new research in earthquake predictability with focus on the potential role of microseismicity.
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spelling pubmed-39242122014-02-14 The debate on the prognostic value of earthquake foreshocks: A meta-analysis Mignan, Arnaud Sci Rep Article The hypothesis that earthquake foreshocks have a prognostic value is challenged by simulations of the normal behaviour of seismicity, where no distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks can be made. In the former view, foreshocks are passive tracers of a tectonic preparatory process that yields the mainshock (i.e., loading by aseismic slip) while in the latter, a foreshock is any earthquake that triggers a larger one. Although both processes can coexist, earthquake prediction is plausible in the first case while virtually impossible in the second. Here I present a meta-analysis of 37 foreshock studies published between 1982 and 2013 to show that the justification of one hypothesis or the other depends on the selected magnitude interval between minimum foreshock magnitude m(min) and mainshock magnitude M. From this literature survey, anomalous foreshocks are found to emerge when m(min) < M − 3.0. These results suggest that a deviation from the normal behaviour of seismicity may be observed only when microseismicity is considered. These results are to be taken with caution since the 37 studies do not all show the same level of reliability. These observations should nonetheless encourage new research in earthquake predictability with focus on the potential role of microseismicity. Nature Publishing Group 2014-02-14 /pmc/articles/PMC3924212/ /pubmed/24526224 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep04099 Text en Copyright © 2014, Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareALike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
spellingShingle Article
Mignan, Arnaud
The debate on the prognostic value of earthquake foreshocks: A meta-analysis
title The debate on the prognostic value of earthquake foreshocks: A meta-analysis
title_full The debate on the prognostic value of earthquake foreshocks: A meta-analysis
title_fullStr The debate on the prognostic value of earthquake foreshocks: A meta-analysis
title_full_unstemmed The debate on the prognostic value of earthquake foreshocks: A meta-analysis
title_short The debate on the prognostic value of earthquake foreshocks: A meta-analysis
title_sort debate on the prognostic value of earthquake foreshocks: a meta-analysis
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3924212/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24526224
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep04099
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