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Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research
The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and t...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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MDPI
2013
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3924435/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24452253 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100030 |
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author | Ebi, Kristie L. |
author_facet | Ebi, Kristie L. |
author_sort | Ebi, Kristie L. |
collection | PubMed |
description | The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3924435 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2013 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-39244352014-02-18 Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research Ebi, Kristie L. Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. MDPI 2013-12-19 2014-01 /pmc/articles/PMC3924435/ /pubmed/24452253 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100030 Text en © 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Ebi, Kristie L. Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research |
title | Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research |
title_full | Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research |
title_fullStr | Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research |
title_full_unstemmed | Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research |
title_short | Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research |
title_sort | health in the new scenarios for climate change research |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3924435/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24452253 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100030 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT ebikristiel healthinthenewscenariosforclimatechangeresearch |