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Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research

The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and t...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Ebi, Kristie L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3924435/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24452253
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100030
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author Ebi, Kristie L.
author_facet Ebi, Kristie L.
author_sort Ebi, Kristie L.
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description The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible.
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spelling pubmed-39244352014-02-18 Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research Ebi, Kristie L. Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. MDPI 2013-12-19 2014-01 /pmc/articles/PMC3924435/ /pubmed/24452253 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100030 Text en © 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Ebi, Kristie L.
Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research
title Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research
title_full Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research
title_fullStr Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research
title_full_unstemmed Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research
title_short Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research
title_sort health in the new scenarios for climate change research
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3924435/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24452253
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100030
work_keys_str_mv AT ebikristiel healthinthenewscenariosforclimatechangeresearch