SNP-Associations and Phenotype Predictions from Hundreds of Microbial Genomes without Genome Alignments

SNP-association studies are a starting point for identifying genes that may be responsible for specific phenotypes, such as disease traits. The vast bulk of tools for SNP-association studies are directed toward SNPs in the human genome, and I am unaware of any tools designed specifically for such studies in bacterial or viral genomes. The PPFS (Predict Phenotypes From SNPs) package described here is an add-on to kSNP, a program that can identify SNPs in a data set of hundreds of microbial genomes. PPFS identifies those SNPs that are non-randomly associated with a phenotype based on the χ(2) probability, then uses those diagnostic SNPs for two distinct, but related, purposes: (1) to predict the phenotypes of strains whose phenotypes are unknown, and (2) to identify those diagnostic SNPs that are most likely to be causally related to the phenotype. In the example illustrated here, from a set of 68 E. coli genomes, for 67 of which the pathogenicity phenotype was known, there were 418,500 SNPs. Using the phenotypes of 36 of those strains, PPFS identified 207 diagnostic SNPs. The diagnostic SNPs predicted the phenotypes of all of the genomes with 97% accuracy. It then identified 97 SNPs whose probability of being causally related to the pathogenic phenotype was >0.999. In a second example, from a set of 116 E. coli genome sequences, using the phenotypes of 65 strains PPFS identified 101 SNPs that predicted the source host (human or non-human) with 90% accuracy.