One-year mortality and predictors of death among hospital survivors of acute respiratory distress syndrome

PURPOSE: Advances in supportive care and ventilator management for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have resulted in declines in short-term mortality, but risks of death after survival to hospital discharge have not been well described. Our objective was to quantify the difference between short-term and long-term mortality in ARDS and to identify risk factors for death and causes of death at 1 year among hospital survivors. METHODS: This multi-intensive care unit, prospective cohort included patients with ARDS enrolled between January 2006 and February 2010. We determined the clinical characteristics associated with in-hospital and 1-year mortality among hospital survivors and utilized death certificate data to identify causes of death. RESULTS: Of 646 patients hospitalized with ARDS, mortality at 1 year was substantially higher (41 %, 95 % CI 37–45 %) than in-hospital mortality (24 %, 95 % CI 21–27 %), P < 0.0001. Among 493 patients who survived to hospital discharge, the 110 (22 %) who died in the subsequent year were older (P < 0.001) and more likely to have been discharged to a nursing home, other hospital, or hospice compared to patients alive at 1 year (P < 0.001). Important predictors of death among hospital survivors were comorbidities present at the time of ARDS, and not living at home prior to admission. ARDS-related measures of severity of illness did not emerge as independent predictors of mortality in hospital survivors. CONCLUSIONS: Despite improvements in short-term ARDS outcomes, 1-year mortality is high, mostly because of the large burden of comorbidities, which are prevalent in patients with ARDS. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00134-013-3186-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.