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The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors

Since 1999, human cases of West Nile fever/neuroinvasive disease (WND) have been reported annually in Russia. The highest incidence has been recorded in three provinces of southern European Russia (Volgograd, Astrakhan and Rostov Provinces), yet in 2010–2012 the distribution of human cases expanded...

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Autores principales: Platonov, Alexander E., Tolpin, Vladimir A., Gridneva, Kristina A., Titkov, Anton V., Platonova, Olga V., Kolyasnikova, Nadezhda M., Busani, Luca, Rezza, Giovanni
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2014
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3945534/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24464233
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110201211
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author Platonov, Alexander E.
Tolpin, Vladimir A.
Gridneva, Kristina A.
Titkov, Anton V.
Platonova, Olga V.
Kolyasnikova, Nadezhda M.
Busani, Luca
Rezza, Giovanni
author_facet Platonov, Alexander E.
Tolpin, Vladimir A.
Gridneva, Kristina A.
Titkov, Anton V.
Platonova, Olga V.
Kolyasnikova, Nadezhda M.
Busani, Luca
Rezza, Giovanni
author_sort Platonov, Alexander E.
collection PubMed
description Since 1999, human cases of West Nile fever/neuroinvasive disease (WND) have been reported annually in Russia. The highest incidence has been recorded in three provinces of southern European Russia (Volgograd, Astrakhan and Rostov Provinces), yet in 2010–2012 the distribution of human cases expanded northwards considerably. From year to year, the number of WND cases varied widely, with major WND outbreaks in 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2012. The present study was aimed at identifying the most important climatic and environmental factors potentially affecting WND incidence in the three above-mentioned provinces and at building simple prognostic models, using those factors, by the decision trees method. The effects of 96 variables, including mean monthly temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, etc. were taken into account. The findings of this analysis show that an increase of human WND incidence, compared to the previous year, was mostly driven by higher temperatures in May and/or in June, as well as (to a lesser extent) by high August-September temperatures. Declining incidence was associated with cold winters (December and/or January, depending on the region and type of model). WND incidence also tended to decrease during year following major WND outbreaks. Combining this information, the future trend of WND may be, to some extent, predicted, in accordance with the climatic conditions observed before the summer peak of WND incidence.
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spelling pubmed-39455342014-03-10 The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors Platonov, Alexander E. Tolpin, Vladimir A. Gridneva, Kristina A. Titkov, Anton V. Platonova, Olga V. Kolyasnikova, Nadezhda M. Busani, Luca Rezza, Giovanni Int J Environ Res Public Health Since 1999, human cases of West Nile fever/neuroinvasive disease (WND) have been reported annually in Russia. The highest incidence has been recorded in three provinces of southern European Russia (Volgograd, Astrakhan and Rostov Provinces), yet in 2010–2012 the distribution of human cases expanded northwards considerably. From year to year, the number of WND cases varied widely, with major WND outbreaks in 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2012. The present study was aimed at identifying the most important climatic and environmental factors potentially affecting WND incidence in the three above-mentioned provinces and at building simple prognostic models, using those factors, by the decision trees method. The effects of 96 variables, including mean monthly temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, etc. were taken into account. The findings of this analysis show that an increase of human WND incidence, compared to the previous year, was mostly driven by higher temperatures in May and/or in June, as well as (to a lesser extent) by high August-September temperatures. Declining incidence was associated with cold winters (December and/or January, depending on the region and type of model). WND incidence also tended to decrease during year following major WND outbreaks. Combining this information, the future trend of WND may be, to some extent, predicted, in accordance with the climatic conditions observed before the summer peak of WND incidence. MDPI 2014-01-23 2014-02 /pmc/articles/PMC3945534/ /pubmed/24464233 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110201211 Text en © 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
spellingShingle Platonov, Alexander E.
Tolpin, Vladimir A.
Gridneva, Kristina A.
Titkov, Anton V.
Platonova, Olga V.
Kolyasnikova, Nadezhda M.
Busani, Luca
Rezza, Giovanni
The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors
title The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors
title_full The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors
title_fullStr The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors
title_full_unstemmed The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors
title_short The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors
title_sort incidence of west nile disease in russia in relation to climatic and environmental factors
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3945534/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24464233
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110201211
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