Disturbance and climatic effects on red spruce community dynamics at its southern continuous range margin

Red spruce (Picea rubens) populations experienced a synchronous rangewide decline in growth and vigor starting in the 1960s, likely caused by climate change and a combination of environmental disturbances. However, it is not yet known if populations continue to decline or have recovered. Red spruce growing near its southern range margin in Massachusetts is a species of concern, in light of the vulnerability to climate change. This study uses population data from 17 permanent plots coupled with tree-ring data to examine radial growth rates, determine the growth-climate relationship, and document disturbance events. Red spruce at these plots ranged from 90 to 184 years old, and comprised 15 to 29 m(2)/ha basal area. Red spruce seedlings and saplings were common at plots with previously high overstory spruce abundance, indicating it could return to a more dominant position under favorable growing conditions. However, permanent plot measures over a 50 year time span did not indicate any consistent trends for changes in basal area or density for red spruce or other woody species. Climate data show that mean annual minimum, maximum, and summer temperatures have increased over the last 100 years. Dendroclimatological analyses indicated that red spruce growth was sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Prior to the 1960s, spruce at these sites showed a positive response to precipitation; however after a multi-year drought in the 1960s showed an increasingly negative correlation with precipitation. There has been a negative growth response to regional warming, as spruce radial growth was mostly constrained by increasing temperatures, potentially coupled with the associated increasing drought-dress. I suggest the change in climate response is potentially due to a physiological threshold response to increasing temperatures, which may cause spruce to continue to decline or be lost from the lower elevation sites, while the high elevation sites has a persistent spruce population.