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Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns
A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies s...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2014
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3962379/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24658137 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0092097 |
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author | Kéfi, Sonia Guttal, Vishwesha Brock, William A. Carpenter, Stephen R. Ellison, Aaron M. Livina, Valerie N. Seekell, David A. Scheffer, Marten van Nes, Egbert H. Dakos, Vasilis |
author_facet | Kéfi, Sonia Guttal, Vishwesha Brock, William A. Carpenter, Stephen R. Ellison, Aaron M. Livina, Valerie N. Seekell, David A. Scheffer, Marten van Nes, Egbert H. Dakos, Vasilis |
author_sort | Kéfi, Sonia |
collection | PubMed |
description | A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3962379 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2014 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-39623792014-03-24 Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns Kéfi, Sonia Guttal, Vishwesha Brock, William A. Carpenter, Stephen R. Ellison, Aaron M. Livina, Valerie N. Seekell, David A. Scheffer, Marten van Nes, Egbert H. Dakos, Vasilis PLoS One Research Article A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. Public Library of Science 2014-03-21 /pmc/articles/PMC3962379/ /pubmed/24658137 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0092097 Text en © 2014 Kéfi et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Kéfi, Sonia Guttal, Vishwesha Brock, William A. Carpenter, Stephen R. Ellison, Aaron M. Livina, Valerie N. Seekell, David A. Scheffer, Marten van Nes, Egbert H. Dakos, Vasilis Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns |
title | Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns |
title_full | Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns |
title_fullStr | Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns |
title_full_unstemmed | Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns |
title_short | Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns |
title_sort | early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3962379/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24658137 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0092097 |
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