Urine Osmolarity and Risk of Dialysis Initiation in a Chronic Kidney Disease Cohort – a Possible Titration Target?

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence is linking fluid intake, vasopressin suppression and osmotic control with chronic kidney disease progression. Interestingly, the association between urine volume, urine osmolarity and risk of dialysis initiation has not been studied in chronic kidney disease patients before. OBJECTIVE: To study the relationship between urine volume, urine osmolarity and the risk of initiating dialysis in chronic kidney disease. DESIGN: In a retrospective cohort analysis of 273 patients with chronic kidney disease stage 1–4 we assessed the association between urine volume, urine osmolarity and the risk of dialysis by a multivariate proportional sub-distribution hazards model for competing risk data according to Fine and Gray. Co-variables were selected via the purposeful selection algorithm. RESULTS: Dialysis was reached in 105 patients over a median follow-up period of 92 months. After adjustment for age, baseline creatinine clearance, other risk factors and diuretics, a higher risk for initiation of dialysis was found in patients with higher urine osmolarity. The adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio for initiation of dialysis was 2.04 (95% confidence interval, 1.06 to 3.92) for each doubling of urine osmolarity. After 72 months, the estimated adjusted cumulative incidence probabilities of dialysis were 15%, 24%, and 34% in patients with a baseline urine osmolarity of 315, 510, and 775 mosm/L, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that higher urine osmolarity is associated with a higher risk of initiating dialysis. As urine osmolarity is a potentially modifiable risk factor, it thus deserves further, prospective research as a potential target in chronic kidney disease progression.