Patient Survival in Renal Allograft Failure: A Time-dependent Analysis

BACKGROUND: To improve patient survival after a renal transplant, it is important to detect which variables affect it. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the effect of renal allograft failure on patient survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 405 renal transplant patients from Kerman University of Medical Sciences hospital, Kerman, Iran from 2004 to 2010. Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival rates of patients, and time-dependent Cox regression was used to examine the effect of allograft failure on patient survival. RESULTS: During 4.06 years (median) of follow-up 28 (6.9%) patients died and 20 (71.4%) of dead patients had allograft failure. Survival rate of patients with allograft failure at 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-year were 0.98, 0.8, 0.53, and 0.53, respectively; in patients with allograft function these values were 0.99, 0.98, 0.97, and 0.96, respectively. The unadjusted death rate was 0.5 per 100 patient years for the maintained allograft function, which increased to 9 per 100 patient years for patients following allograft failure. In fully adjusted model the risk of death increased in patients with allograft failure (HR = 2.09; 95% CI: 1.56-2.81), pretransplant diabetes (HR = 2.81; 95% CI: 1.2-6.7), patients with BMI ≥ 25 (vs. 18.5 ≤ BMI < 25) (HR = 3.56; 95% CI: 1.09-11.6). With an increase in recipient age this risk increased (HR = 1.04 per year increase; 95% CI: 1.01-6.7). Receiving a living kidney transplant decreased this risk (HR = 0.52; 95% CI: 0.39-0.69). CONCLUSIONS: An increase in recipient age and BMI, affliction with diabetes, allograft failure, and receiving deceased kidney transplant increased the risk of death.