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A Combination of Cross Correlation and Trend Analyses Reveals that Kawasaki Disease is a Pollen-Induced Delayed-Type Hyper-Sensitivity Disease

Based on ecological analyses we proposed in 2003 the relation of Kawasaki Disease (KD) onset causing acute febrile systemic vasculitis, and pollen exposure. This study was aimed at investigating the correlation between pollen release and the change in the numbers of KD patients from 1991 to 2002 in...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Awaya, Akira, Nishimura, Chiaki
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3986995/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24599039
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110302628
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author Awaya, Akira
Nishimura, Chiaki
author_facet Awaya, Akira
Nishimura, Chiaki
author_sort Awaya, Akira
collection PubMed
description Based on ecological analyses we proposed in 2003 the relation of Kawasaki Disease (KD) onset causing acute febrile systemic vasculitis, and pollen exposure. This study was aimed at investigating the correlation between pollen release and the change in the numbers of KD patients from 1991 to 2002 in Kanagawa, Japan. Short-term changes in the number of KD patients and medium- to long-term trends were analyzed separately. Short-term changes in the number of KD patients showed a significant positive cross correlation (CC) with 9- to 10-month delay following pollen releases, and a smaller but significant CC with 3- to 4-month delay. Further, a temporal relationship revealed by positive CC distribution showed that pollen release preceded KD development, suggesting that pollen release leads to KD development. A trend in patient numbers was fitted by an exponential curve with the time constant of 0.005494. We hypothesized that the trend was caused by the cumulative effects of pollen exposure for elapsed months on patients who may develop KD. By comparing the time constants of fitted exponential curve for each pollen accumulation period with 0.005494, the exposure period was estimated to be 21.4 months, which explains why approximately 50% of patients developed KD within 24 months from birth.
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spelling pubmed-39869952014-04-15 A Combination of Cross Correlation and Trend Analyses Reveals that Kawasaki Disease is a Pollen-Induced Delayed-Type Hyper-Sensitivity Disease Awaya, Akira Nishimura, Chiaki Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Based on ecological analyses we proposed in 2003 the relation of Kawasaki Disease (KD) onset causing acute febrile systemic vasculitis, and pollen exposure. This study was aimed at investigating the correlation between pollen release and the change in the numbers of KD patients from 1991 to 2002 in Kanagawa, Japan. Short-term changes in the number of KD patients and medium- to long-term trends were analyzed separately. Short-term changes in the number of KD patients showed a significant positive cross correlation (CC) with 9- to 10-month delay following pollen releases, and a smaller but significant CC with 3- to 4-month delay. Further, a temporal relationship revealed by positive CC distribution showed that pollen release preceded KD development, suggesting that pollen release leads to KD development. A trend in patient numbers was fitted by an exponential curve with the time constant of 0.005494. We hypothesized that the trend was caused by the cumulative effects of pollen exposure for elapsed months on patients who may develop KD. By comparing the time constants of fitted exponential curve for each pollen accumulation period with 0.005494, the exposure period was estimated to be 21.4 months, which explains why approximately 50% of patients developed KD within 24 months from birth. MDPI 2014-03-04 2014-03 /pmc/articles/PMC3986995/ /pubmed/24599039 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110302628 Text en © 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Awaya, Akira
Nishimura, Chiaki
A Combination of Cross Correlation and Trend Analyses Reveals that Kawasaki Disease is a Pollen-Induced Delayed-Type Hyper-Sensitivity Disease
title A Combination of Cross Correlation and Trend Analyses Reveals that Kawasaki Disease is a Pollen-Induced Delayed-Type Hyper-Sensitivity Disease
title_full A Combination of Cross Correlation and Trend Analyses Reveals that Kawasaki Disease is a Pollen-Induced Delayed-Type Hyper-Sensitivity Disease
title_fullStr A Combination of Cross Correlation and Trend Analyses Reveals that Kawasaki Disease is a Pollen-Induced Delayed-Type Hyper-Sensitivity Disease
title_full_unstemmed A Combination of Cross Correlation and Trend Analyses Reveals that Kawasaki Disease is a Pollen-Induced Delayed-Type Hyper-Sensitivity Disease
title_short A Combination of Cross Correlation and Trend Analyses Reveals that Kawasaki Disease is a Pollen-Induced Delayed-Type Hyper-Sensitivity Disease
title_sort combination of cross correlation and trend analyses reveals that kawasaki disease is a pollen-induced delayed-type hyper-sensitivity disease
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3986995/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24599039
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110302628
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