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Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China
This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the mod...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2014
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3987023/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24633146 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110303108 |
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author | Li, Yong Zhang, Jinhui Zhang, Xinan |
author_facet | Li, Yong Zhang, Jinhui Zhang, Xinan |
author_sort | Li, Yong |
collection | PubMed |
description | This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the model are reasonable. We obtained the basic reproductive number of the disease for each year, and it is larger than 1. Thus, we conclude that HFMD will persist in China under the current conditions, so we investigate the preventive measures to control the HFMD. If the preventive measures proposed in our paper were implemented, HFMD would be controlled quickly and the number of infections would decline rapidly over a period of time. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3987023 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2014 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-39870232014-04-15 Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China Li, Yong Zhang, Jinhui Zhang, Xinan Int J Environ Res Public Health Article This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the model are reasonable. We obtained the basic reproductive number of the disease for each year, and it is larger than 1. Thus, we conclude that HFMD will persist in China under the current conditions, so we investigate the preventive measures to control the HFMD. If the preventive measures proposed in our paper were implemented, HFMD would be controlled quickly and the number of infections would decline rapidly over a period of time. MDPI 2014-03-13 2014-03 /pmc/articles/PMC3987023/ /pubmed/24633146 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110303108 Text en © 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Li, Yong Zhang, Jinhui Zhang, Xinan Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China |
title | Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China |
title_full | Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China |
title_fullStr | Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China |
title_full_unstemmed | Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China |
title_short | Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China |
title_sort | modeling and preventive measures of hand, foot and mouth disease (hfmd) in china |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3987023/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24633146 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110303108 |
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