Evaluation of the CENTURY Model Using Long-Term Fertilization Trials under Corn-Wheat Cropping Systems in the Typical Croplands of China

Soil organic matter models are widely used to study soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Here, we used the CENTURY model to simulate SOC in wheat-corn cropping systems at three long-term fertilization trials. Our study indicates that CENTURY can simulate fertilization effects on SOC dynamics under different climate and soil conditions. The normalized root mean square error is less than 15% for all the treatments. Soil carbon presents various changes under different fertilization management. Treatment with straw return would enhance SOC to a relatively stable level whereas chemical fertilization affects SOC differently across the three sites. After running CENTURY over the period of 1990–2050, the SOC levels are predicted to increase from 31.8 to 52.1 Mg ha(−1) across the three sites. We estimate that the carbon sequestration potential between 1990 and 2050 would be 9.4–35.7 Mg ha(−1) under the current high manure application at the three sites. Analysis of SOC in each carbon pool indicates that long-term fertilization enhances the slow pool proportion but decreases the passive pool proportion. Model results suggest that change in the slow carbon pool is the major driver of the overall trends in SOC stocks under long-term fertilization.