Clinical predictors of incident gallstone disease in a Chinese population in Taipei, Taiwan

BACKGROUND: Gallstone disease (GSD) is a common gastrointestinal disorder throughout the world. The authors explored the incidence of GSD in Taiwan and its condition-associated predictive factors. METHODS: The initial study cohort comprised 2386 healthy adult participants, who were voluntarily admitted to a teaching hospital for a physical check-up in 2002 in Taipei, Taiwan. After excluding 126 patients who exhibited prevalent GSD, 2260 non-GSD participants received annual follow-up screenings for GSD until 31 December, 2007. Of those, 1296 (57.3%) patients were re-examined to collect blood samples and conduct ultrasound sonography. RESULTS: Among the 1296 participants who exhibited no GSD at the first screening, 23 patients developed GSD during 3640 person-years of follow-up. The incidence was 0.632% per year (95% CI: 0.292%–2.009%). After conducting a Cox regression, increased age (50–59 years versus < 40 years, RR = 2.16 [95% CI: 1.09–5.97], 60+ years versus < 40 years, RR = 3.81 [95% CI: 2.77–8.63]), high body mass index (≥27 kg/m(2) versus < 24 kg/m(2), RR = 1.64 [95% CI: 1.07–2.98]), high fasting plasma glucose levels (≥126 mg/dL versus < 110 mg/dL, RR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.10–3.87), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (yes versus no, RR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.21–1.90) appeared to be significantly related to developing GSD. CONCLUSION: Increased age is a well-established risk factor for developing GSD. The current findings indicated that high body mass index, elevated fasting plasma glucose levels, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease were also associated with GSD.