Cargando…
Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore
Weather factors are widely studied for their effects on indicating dengue incidence trends. However, these studies have been limited due to the complex epidemiology of dengue, which involves dynamic interplay of multiple factors such as herd immunity within a population, distinct serotypes of the vi...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2014
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4006725/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24786517 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002805 |
_version_ | 1782314252357337088 |
---|---|
author | Xu, Hai-Yan Fu, Xiuju Lee, Lionel Kim Hock Ma, Stefan Goh, Kee Tai Wong, Jiancheng Habibullah, Mohamed Salahuddin Lee, Gary Kee Khoon Lim, Tian Kuay Tambyah, Paul Anantharajah Lim, Chin Leong Ng, Lee Ching |
author_facet | Xu, Hai-Yan Fu, Xiuju Lee, Lionel Kim Hock Ma, Stefan Goh, Kee Tai Wong, Jiancheng Habibullah, Mohamed Salahuddin Lee, Gary Kee Khoon Lim, Tian Kuay Tambyah, Paul Anantharajah Lim, Chin Leong Ng, Lee Ching |
author_sort | Xu, Hai-Yan |
collection | PubMed |
description | Weather factors are widely studied for their effects on indicating dengue incidence trends. However, these studies have been limited due to the complex epidemiology of dengue, which involves dynamic interplay of multiple factors such as herd immunity within a population, distinct serotypes of the virus, environmental factors and intervention programs. In this study, we investigate the impact of weather factors on dengue in Singapore, considering the disease epidemiology and profile of virus serotypes. A Poisson regression combined with Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) was used to evaluate and compare the impact of weekly Absolute Humidity (AH) and other weather factors (mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed) on dengue incidence from 2001 to 2009. The same analysis was also performed on three sub-periods, defined by predominant circulating serotypes. The performance of DLNM regression models were then evaluated through the Akaike's Information Criterion. From the correlation and DLNM regression modeling analyses of the studied period, AH was found to be a better predictor for modeling dengue incidence than the other unique weather variables. Whilst mean temperature (MeanT) also showed significant correlation with dengue incidence, the relationship between AH or MeanT and dengue incidence, however, varied in the three sub-periods. Our results showed that AH had a more stable impact on dengue incidence than temperature when virological factors were taken into consideration. AH appeared to be the most consistent factor in modeling dengue incidence in Singapore. Considering the changes in dominant serotypes, the improvements in vector control programs and the inconsistent weather patterns observed in the sub-periods, the impact of weather on dengue is modulated by these other factors. Future studies on the impact of climate change on dengue need to take all the other contributing factors into consideration in order to make meaningful public policy recommendations. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4006725 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2014 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-40067252014-05-09 Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore Xu, Hai-Yan Fu, Xiuju Lee, Lionel Kim Hock Ma, Stefan Goh, Kee Tai Wong, Jiancheng Habibullah, Mohamed Salahuddin Lee, Gary Kee Khoon Lim, Tian Kuay Tambyah, Paul Anantharajah Lim, Chin Leong Ng, Lee Ching PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Weather factors are widely studied for their effects on indicating dengue incidence trends. However, these studies have been limited due to the complex epidemiology of dengue, which involves dynamic interplay of multiple factors such as herd immunity within a population, distinct serotypes of the virus, environmental factors and intervention programs. In this study, we investigate the impact of weather factors on dengue in Singapore, considering the disease epidemiology and profile of virus serotypes. A Poisson regression combined with Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) was used to evaluate and compare the impact of weekly Absolute Humidity (AH) and other weather factors (mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed) on dengue incidence from 2001 to 2009. The same analysis was also performed on three sub-periods, defined by predominant circulating serotypes. The performance of DLNM regression models were then evaluated through the Akaike's Information Criterion. From the correlation and DLNM regression modeling analyses of the studied period, AH was found to be a better predictor for modeling dengue incidence than the other unique weather variables. Whilst mean temperature (MeanT) also showed significant correlation with dengue incidence, the relationship between AH or MeanT and dengue incidence, however, varied in the three sub-periods. Our results showed that AH had a more stable impact on dengue incidence than temperature when virological factors were taken into consideration. AH appeared to be the most consistent factor in modeling dengue incidence in Singapore. Considering the changes in dominant serotypes, the improvements in vector control programs and the inconsistent weather patterns observed in the sub-periods, the impact of weather on dengue is modulated by these other factors. Future studies on the impact of climate change on dengue need to take all the other contributing factors into consideration in order to make meaningful public policy recommendations. Public Library of Science 2014-05-01 /pmc/articles/PMC4006725/ /pubmed/24786517 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002805 Text en © 2014 Xu et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Xu, Hai-Yan Fu, Xiuju Lee, Lionel Kim Hock Ma, Stefan Goh, Kee Tai Wong, Jiancheng Habibullah, Mohamed Salahuddin Lee, Gary Kee Khoon Lim, Tian Kuay Tambyah, Paul Anantharajah Lim, Chin Leong Ng, Lee Ching Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore |
title | Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore |
title_full | Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore |
title_fullStr | Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore |
title_full_unstemmed | Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore |
title_short | Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore |
title_sort | statistical modeling reveals the effect of absolute humidity on dengue in singapore |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4006725/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24786517 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002805 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT xuhaiyan statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore AT fuxiuju statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore AT leelionelkimhock statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore AT mastefan statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore AT gohkeetai statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore AT wongjiancheng statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore AT habibullahmohamedsalahuddin statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore AT leegarykeekhoon statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore AT limtiankuay statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore AT tambyahpaulanantharajah statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore AT limchinleong statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore AT ngleeching statisticalmodelingrevealstheeffectofabsolutehumidityondengueinsingapore |