A simple prognostic scoring system for patients receiving transarterial embolisation for hepatocellular cancer

BACKGROUND: The prognosis for patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) undergoing transarterial therapy (TACE/TAE) is variable. METHODS: We carried out Cox regression analysis of prognostic factors using a training dataset of 114 patients treated with TACE/TAE. A simple prognostic score (PS) was developed, validated using an independent dataset of 167 patients and compared with Child–Pugh, CLIP, Okuda, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) and MELD. RESULTS: Low albumin, high bilirubin or α-fetoprotein (AFP) and large tumour size were associated with a two- to threefold increase in the risk of death. Patients were assigned one point if albumin <36 g/dl, bilirubin >17 μmol/l, AFP >400 ng/ml or size of dominant tumour >7 cm. The Hepatoma arterial-embolisation prognostic (HAP) score was calculated by summing these points. Patients were divided into four risk groups based on their HAP scores; HAP A, B, C and D (scores 0, 1, 2 and >2, respectively). The median survival for the groups A, B, C and D was 27.6, 18.5, 9.0 and 3.6 months, respectively. The HAP score validated well with the independent dataset and performed better than other scoring systems in differentiating high- and low-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: The HAP score predicts outcomes in patients with HCC undergoing TACE/TAE and may help guide treatment selection, allow stratification in clinical trials and facilitate meaningful comparisons across reported series.