Optimized outcome prediction in breast cancer by combining the 70-gene signature with clinical risk prediction algorithms

Clinical guidelines for breast cancer treatment differ in their selection of patients at a high risk of recurrence who are eligible to receive adjuvant systemic treatment (AST). The 70-gene signature is a molecular tool to better guide AST decisions. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether adding the 70-gene signature to clinical risk prediction algorithms can optimize outcome prediction and consequently treatment decisions in early stage, node-negative breast cancer patients. A 70-gene signature was available for 427 patients participating in the RASTER study (cT1-3N0M0). Median follow-up was 61.6 months. Based on 5-year distant-recurrence free interval (DRFI) probabilities survival areas under the curve (AUC) were calculated and compared for risk estimations based on the six clinical risk prediction algorithms: Adjuvant! Online (AOL), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI), St. Gallen (2003), the Dutch National guidelines (CBO 2004 and NABON 2012), and PREDICT plus. Also, survival AUC were calculated after adding the 70-gene signature to these clinical risk estimations. Systemically untreated patients with a high clinical risk estimation but a low risk 70-gene signature had an excellent 5-year DRFI varying between 97.1 and 100 %, depending on the clinical risk prediction algorithms used in the comparison. The best risk estimation was obtained in this cohort by adding the 70-gene signature to CBO 2012 (AUC: 0.644) and PREDICT (AUC: 0.662). Clinical risk estimations by all clinical algorithms improved by adding the 70-gene signature. Patients with a low risk 70-gene signature have an excellent survival, independent of their clinical risk estimation. Adding the 70-gene signature to clinical risk prediction algorithms improves risk estimations and therefore might improve the identification of early stage node-negative breast cancer patients for whom AST has limited value. In this cohort, the PREDICT plus tool in combination with the 70-gene signature provided the best risk prediction. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10549-014-2954-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.