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Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses

Mathematical and statistical models are needed to understand the extent to which weather, climate variability, and climate change are affecting current and may affect future health burdens in the context of other risk factors and a range of possible development pathways, and the temporal and spatial...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Ebi, Kristie L., Rocklöv, Joacim
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Co-Action Publishing 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4033322/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24861341
http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/gha.v7.24154
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author Ebi, Kristie L.
Rocklöv, Joacim
author_facet Ebi, Kristie L.
Rocklöv, Joacim
author_sort Ebi, Kristie L.
collection PubMed
description Mathematical and statistical models are needed to understand the extent to which weather, climate variability, and climate change are affecting current and may affect future health burdens in the context of other risk factors and a range of possible development pathways, and the temporal and spatial patterns of any changes. Such understanding is needed to guide the design and the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Because each model projection captures only a narrow range of possible futures, and because models serve different purposes, multiple models are needed for each health outcome (‘horses for courses’). Multiple modeling results can be used to bracket the ranges of when, where, and with what intensity negative health consequences could arise. This commentary explores some climate change and health modeling issues, particularly modeling exposure-response relationships, developing early warning systems, projecting health risks over coming decades, and modeling to inform decision-making. Research needs are also suggested.
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spelling pubmed-40333222014-12-15 Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses Ebi, Kristie L. Rocklöv, Joacim Glob Health Action Methods Forum Mathematical and statistical models are needed to understand the extent to which weather, climate variability, and climate change are affecting current and may affect future health burdens in the context of other risk factors and a range of possible development pathways, and the temporal and spatial patterns of any changes. Such understanding is needed to guide the design and the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Because each model projection captures only a narrow range of possible futures, and because models serve different purposes, multiple models are needed for each health outcome (‘horses for courses’). Multiple modeling results can be used to bracket the ranges of when, where, and with what intensity negative health consequences could arise. This commentary explores some climate change and health modeling issues, particularly modeling exposure-response relationships, developing early warning systems, projecting health risks over coming decades, and modeling to inform decision-making. Research needs are also suggested. Co-Action Publishing 2014-05-23 /pmc/articles/PMC4033322/ /pubmed/24861341 http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/gha.v7.24154 Text en © 2014 Kristie L. Ebi and Joacim Rocklöv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Methods Forum
Ebi, Kristie L.
Rocklöv, Joacim
Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses
title Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses
title_full Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses
title_fullStr Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses
title_full_unstemmed Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses
title_short Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses
title_sort climate change and health modeling: horses for courses
topic Methods Forum
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4033322/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24861341
http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/gha.v7.24154
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