Smoking Cessation and the Risk of Diabetes Mellitus and Impaired Fasting Glucose: Three-Year Outcomes after a Quit Attempt

Weight gain after smoking cessation may increase diabetes mellitus and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) risk. This study evaluated associations between smoking cessation and continued smoking with incident diabetes and IFG three years after a quit attempt. The 1504 smokers (58% female) were mean (standard deviation) 44.7 (11.1) years old and smoked 21.4 (8.9) cigarettes/day. Of 914 participants with year 3 data, the 238 abstainers had greater weight gain, increase in waist circumference, and increase in fasting glucose levels than the 676 continuing smokers (p≤0.008). In univariate analyses, Year 3 abstinence was associated with incident diabetes (OR = 2.60, 95% CI 1.44–4.67, p = .002; 4.3% absolute excess) and IFG (OR = 2.43, 95% CI 1.74–3.41, p<0.0001; 15.6% absolute excess). In multivariate analyses, incident diabetes was associated independently with older age (p = 0.0002), higher baseline body weight (p = 0.021), weight gain (p = 0.023), baseline smoking rate (p = 0.008), baseline IFG (p<0.0001), and baseline hemoglobin A1C (all p<0.0001). Smoking more at baseline predicted incident diabetes among eventual abstainers (p<0.0001); weighing more at baseline predicted incident diabetes among continuing smokers (p = 0.0004). Quitting smoking is associated with increased diabetes and IFG risk. Independent risk factors include older age, baseline body weight, baseline glycemic status, and heavier pre-quit smoking. These findings may help target smokers for interventions to prevent dysglycemia. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00332644