Liver Stiffness Value-Based Risk Estimation of Late Recurrence after Curative Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Development and Validation of a Predictive Model

BACKGROUND: Preoperative liver stiffness (LS) measurement using transient elastography (TE) is useful for predicting late recurrence after curative resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We developed and validated a novel LS value-based predictive model for late recurrence of HCC. METHODS: Patients who were due to undergo curative resection of HCC between August 2006 and January 2010 were prospectively enrolled and TE was performed prior to operations by study protocol. The predictive model of late recurrence was constructed based on a multiple logistic regression model. Discrimination and calibration were used to validate the model. RESULTS: Among a total of 139 patients who were finally analyzed, late recurrence occurred in 44 patients, with a median follow-up of 24.5 months (range, 12.4–68.1). We developed a predictive model for late recurrence of HCC using LS value, activity grade II-III, presence of multiple tumors, and indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min (ICG R15), which showed fairly good discrimination capability with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.724 (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 0.632–0.816). In the validation, using a bootstrap method to assess discrimination, the AUROC remained largely unchanged between iterations, with an average AUROC of 0.722 (95% CIs, 0.718–0.724). When we plotted a calibration chart for predicted and observed risk of late recurrence, the predicted risk of late recurrence correlated well with observed risk, with a correlation coefficient of 0.873 (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: A simple LS value-based predictive model could estimate the risk of late recurrence in patients who underwent curative resection of HCC.