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Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a leading cause of death worldwide. Urban public health and medical management in Shenzhen, an international city in the developing country of China, is challenged by an increasing burden of IHD. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of IHD hospital admiss...

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Autores principales: Wang, Yanxia, Du, Qingyun, Ren, Fu, Liang, Shi, Lin, De-nan, Tian, Qin, Chen, Yan, Li, Jia-jia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4053872/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24806191
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110504799
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author Wang, Yanxia
Du, Qingyun
Ren, Fu
Liang, Shi
Lin, De-nan
Tian, Qin
Chen, Yan
Li, Jia-jia
author_facet Wang, Yanxia
Du, Qingyun
Ren, Fu
Liang, Shi
Lin, De-nan
Tian, Qin
Chen, Yan
Li, Jia-jia
author_sort Wang, Yanxia
collection PubMed
description Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a leading cause of death worldwide. Urban public health and medical management in Shenzhen, an international city in the developing country of China, is challenged by an increasing burden of IHD. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of IHD hospital admissions from 2003 to 2012 utilizing spatial statistics, spatial analysis, and space-time scan statistics. The spatial statistics and spatial analysis measured the incidence rate (hospital admissions per 1,000 residents) and the standardized rate (the observed cases standardized by the expected cases) of IHD at the district level to determine the spatio-temporal distribution and identify patterns of change. The space-time scan statistics was used to identify spatio-temporal clusters of IHD hospital admissions at the district level. The other objective of this study was to forecast the IHD hospital admissions over the next three years (2013–2015) to predict the IHD incidence rates and the varying burdens of IHD-related medical services among the districts in Shenzhen. The results show that the highest hospital admissions, incidence rates, and standardized rates of IHD are in Futian. From 2003 to 2012, the IHD hospital admissions exhibited similar mean centers and directional distributions, with a slight increase in admissions toward the north in accordance with the movement of the total population. The incidence rates of IHD exhibited a gradual increase from 2003 to 2012 for all districts in Shenzhen, which may be the result of the rapid development of the economy and the increasing traffic pollution. In addition, some neighboring areas exhibited similar temporal change patterns, which were also detected by the spatio-temporal cluster analysis. Futian and Dapeng would have the highest and the lowest hospital admissions, respectively, although these districts have the highest incidence rates among all of the districts from 2013 to 2015 based on the prediction using the GM (1,1). In addition, the combined analysis of the prediction of IHD hospital admissions and the general hospital distributions shows that Pingshan and Longgang might experience the most serious burden of IHD hospital services in the near future, although Futian would still have the greatest number and the highest incidence rate of hospital admissions for IHD.
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spelling pubmed-40538722014-06-12 Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China Wang, Yanxia Du, Qingyun Ren, Fu Liang, Shi Lin, De-nan Tian, Qin Chen, Yan Li, Jia-jia Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a leading cause of death worldwide. Urban public health and medical management in Shenzhen, an international city in the developing country of China, is challenged by an increasing burden of IHD. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of IHD hospital admissions from 2003 to 2012 utilizing spatial statistics, spatial analysis, and space-time scan statistics. The spatial statistics and spatial analysis measured the incidence rate (hospital admissions per 1,000 residents) and the standardized rate (the observed cases standardized by the expected cases) of IHD at the district level to determine the spatio-temporal distribution and identify patterns of change. The space-time scan statistics was used to identify spatio-temporal clusters of IHD hospital admissions at the district level. The other objective of this study was to forecast the IHD hospital admissions over the next three years (2013–2015) to predict the IHD incidence rates and the varying burdens of IHD-related medical services among the districts in Shenzhen. The results show that the highest hospital admissions, incidence rates, and standardized rates of IHD are in Futian. From 2003 to 2012, the IHD hospital admissions exhibited similar mean centers and directional distributions, with a slight increase in admissions toward the north in accordance with the movement of the total population. The incidence rates of IHD exhibited a gradual increase from 2003 to 2012 for all districts in Shenzhen, which may be the result of the rapid development of the economy and the increasing traffic pollution. In addition, some neighboring areas exhibited similar temporal change patterns, which were also detected by the spatio-temporal cluster analysis. Futian and Dapeng would have the highest and the lowest hospital admissions, respectively, although these districts have the highest incidence rates among all of the districts from 2013 to 2015 based on the prediction using the GM (1,1). In addition, the combined analysis of the prediction of IHD hospital admissions and the general hospital distributions shows that Pingshan and Longgang might experience the most serious burden of IHD hospital services in the near future, although Futian would still have the greatest number and the highest incidence rate of hospital admissions for IHD. MDPI 2014-05-06 2014-05 /pmc/articles/PMC4053872/ /pubmed/24806191 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110504799 Text en © 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Wang, Yanxia
Du, Qingyun
Ren, Fu
Liang, Shi
Lin, De-nan
Tian, Qin
Chen, Yan
Li, Jia-jia
Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China
title Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China
title_full Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China
title_fullStr Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China
title_full_unstemmed Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China
title_short Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China
title_sort spatio-temporal variation and prediction of ischemic heart disease hospitalizations in shenzhen, china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4053872/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24806191
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110504799
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