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The annual number of hip fractures in Sweden will double from year 2002 to 2050: Projections based on local and nationwide data

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The incidence and annual number of hip fractures have increased worldwide during the past 50 years, and projections have indicated a further increase. During the last decade, however, a down-turn in the incidence of hip fracture has been seen in the western world. We predicte...

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Autores principales: Rosengren, Björn E, Karlsson, Magnus K
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Informa Healthcare 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4062788/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24786906
http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/17453674.2014.916491
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author Rosengren, Björn E
Karlsson, Magnus K
author_facet Rosengren, Björn E
Karlsson, Magnus K
author_sort Rosengren, Björn E
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The incidence and annual number of hip fractures have increased worldwide during the past 50 years, and projections have indicated a further increase. During the last decade, however, a down-turn in the incidence of hip fracture has been seen in the western world. We predicted the development of hip fractures in Sweden until the year 2050. METHODS: We reviewed surgical records for the period 2002–2012 in the city of Malmö, Sweden, and identified patients aged 50 years or more with a hip fracture. We estimated incidence rates by using official population figures as denominator and applied the rates to population projections each year until 2050. We also made projections based on our previously published nationwide Swedish hip fracture rates for the period 1987–2002. Since the projections are based on estimates, no confidence limits are given. RESULTS: During the period 2002–2012, there were 7,385 hip fractures in Malmö. Based on these data, we predicted that there would be approximately 30,000 hip fractures in Sweden in the year 2050. Use of nationwide rates for 2002 in the predictive model gave similar results, which correspond to an increase in the number of hip fractures by a factor of 1.9 (1.7 for women and 2.3 for men) compared to 2002. INTERPRETATION: The annual number of hip fractures will almost double during the first half of the century. Time trends in hip fractures and also changes in population size and age distribution should be continuously monitored, as such changes will influence the number of hip fractures in the future. Our results indicate that we must optimize preventive measures for hip fractures and prepare for major demands in resources.
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spelling pubmed-40627882014-07-02 The annual number of hip fractures in Sweden will double from year 2002 to 2050: Projections based on local and nationwide data Rosengren, Björn E Karlsson, Magnus K Acta Orthop Hip and Femur BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The incidence and annual number of hip fractures have increased worldwide during the past 50 years, and projections have indicated a further increase. During the last decade, however, a down-turn in the incidence of hip fracture has been seen in the western world. We predicted the development of hip fractures in Sweden until the year 2050. METHODS: We reviewed surgical records for the period 2002–2012 in the city of Malmö, Sweden, and identified patients aged 50 years or more with a hip fracture. We estimated incidence rates by using official population figures as denominator and applied the rates to population projections each year until 2050. We also made projections based on our previously published nationwide Swedish hip fracture rates for the period 1987–2002. Since the projections are based on estimates, no confidence limits are given. RESULTS: During the period 2002–2012, there were 7,385 hip fractures in Malmö. Based on these data, we predicted that there would be approximately 30,000 hip fractures in Sweden in the year 2050. Use of nationwide rates for 2002 in the predictive model gave similar results, which correspond to an increase in the number of hip fractures by a factor of 1.9 (1.7 for women and 2.3 for men) compared to 2002. INTERPRETATION: The annual number of hip fractures will almost double during the first half of the century. Time trends in hip fractures and also changes in population size and age distribution should be continuously monitored, as such changes will influence the number of hip fractures in the future. Our results indicate that we must optimize preventive measures for hip fractures and prepare for major demands in resources. Informa Healthcare 2014-06 2014-06-16 /pmc/articles/PMC4062788/ /pubmed/24786906 http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/17453674.2014.916491 Text en Copyright: © Nordic Orthopaedic Federation http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 License which permits users to download and share the article for non-commercial purposes, so long as the article is reproduced in the whole without changes, and provided the original source is credited.
spellingShingle Hip and Femur
Rosengren, Björn E
Karlsson, Magnus K
The annual number of hip fractures in Sweden will double from year 2002 to 2050: Projections based on local and nationwide data
title The annual number of hip fractures in Sweden will double from year 2002 to 2050: Projections based on local and nationwide data
title_full The annual number of hip fractures in Sweden will double from year 2002 to 2050: Projections based on local and nationwide data
title_fullStr The annual number of hip fractures in Sweden will double from year 2002 to 2050: Projections based on local and nationwide data
title_full_unstemmed The annual number of hip fractures in Sweden will double from year 2002 to 2050: Projections based on local and nationwide data
title_short The annual number of hip fractures in Sweden will double from year 2002 to 2050: Projections based on local and nationwide data
title_sort annual number of hip fractures in sweden will double from year 2002 to 2050: projections based on local and nationwide data
topic Hip and Femur
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4062788/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24786906
http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/17453674.2014.916491
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