Autoantibodies against C1q as a Diagnostic Measure of Lupus Nephritis: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of C1q autoantibodies in identifying lupus nephritis (LN) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). DATA SOURCES AND METHODS: Citation indexes were searched and 370 articles published from 1977 to 2013 were evaluated. The 31 selected studies included in the meta-analysis were cross-sectional in design. Among the 31 studies, 28 compared anti-C1q antibodies in 2769 SLE patients with (n=1442) and without a history of LN (n=1327). Nine studies examined anti-C1q in 517 SLE patients with active (n=249) and inactive LN (n=268). Hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) random effects models were fitted to pool estimates of accuracy across the studies. RESULTS: Anti-C1q antibodies discriminated between patients with and without a history of LN, with a median specificity of 73.5%. The HSROC model estimated the corresponding sensitivity to be 70.4%. A hypothetical patient with a 55% prior probability of having a history of LN as opposed to no history (the median prevalence across 28 eligible studies) would have a post-test probability of 76.4% following a positive test result (positive predictive value) or 33.0% following a negative test result (negative predictive value). For discriminating active from inactive LN the median specificity of anti-C1q antibodies was 80%, with a corresponding estimated sensitivity value 75.7% based on the HSROC model. A hypothetical patient with a 56% prior probability of active as opposed to inactive LN (the median prevalence across the 9 eligible studies) would have a post-test probability of 82.8% following a positive test result or 27.9% following a negative test result. CONCLUSIONS: Although C1q antibodies are associated with lupus nephritis the post-test probabilities are not sufficiently convincing to provide reasonable certainty of the presence or absence of history of disease/active disease.