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Epidemics on Networks with Large Initial Conditions or Changing Structure

In this paper we extend previous work deriving dynamic equations governing infectious disease spread on networks. The previous work has implicitly assumed that the disease is initialized by an infinitesimally small proportion of the population. Our modifications allow us to account for an arbitraril...

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Autor principal: Miller, Joel C.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4086930/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25004149
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101421
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author Miller, Joel C.
author_facet Miller, Joel C.
author_sort Miller, Joel C.
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description In this paper we extend previous work deriving dynamic equations governing infectious disease spread on networks. The previous work has implicitly assumed that the disease is initialized by an infinitesimally small proportion of the population. Our modifications allow us to account for an arbitrarily large initial proportion infected. This helps resolve an apparent paradox in earlier work whereby the number of susceptible individuals could increase if too many individuals were initially infected. It also helps explain an apparent small deviation that has been observed between simulation and theory. An advantage of this modification is that it allows us to account for changes in the structure or behavior of the population during the epidemic.
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spelling pubmed-40869302014-07-14 Epidemics on Networks with Large Initial Conditions or Changing Structure Miller, Joel C. PLoS One Research Article In this paper we extend previous work deriving dynamic equations governing infectious disease spread on networks. The previous work has implicitly assumed that the disease is initialized by an infinitesimally small proportion of the population. Our modifications allow us to account for an arbitrarily large initial proportion infected. This helps resolve an apparent paradox in earlier work whereby the number of susceptible individuals could increase if too many individuals were initially infected. It also helps explain an apparent small deviation that has been observed between simulation and theory. An advantage of this modification is that it allows us to account for changes in the structure or behavior of the population during the epidemic. Public Library of Science 2014-07-08 /pmc/articles/PMC4086930/ /pubmed/25004149 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101421 Text en © 2014 Joel C Miller http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Miller, Joel C.
Epidemics on Networks with Large Initial Conditions or Changing Structure
title Epidemics on Networks with Large Initial Conditions or Changing Structure
title_full Epidemics on Networks with Large Initial Conditions or Changing Structure
title_fullStr Epidemics on Networks with Large Initial Conditions or Changing Structure
title_full_unstemmed Epidemics on Networks with Large Initial Conditions or Changing Structure
title_short Epidemics on Networks with Large Initial Conditions or Changing Structure
title_sort epidemics on networks with large initial conditions or changing structure
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4086930/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25004149
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101421
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