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Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed

Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-mod...

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Autores principales: Piniewski, Mikołaj, Kardel, Ignacy, Giełczewski, Marek, Marcinkowski, Paweł, Okruszko, Tomasz
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4132465/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24154850
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0461-z
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author Piniewski, Mikołaj
Kardel, Ignacy
Giełczewski, Marek
Marcinkowski, Paweł
Okruszko, Tomasz
author_facet Piniewski, Mikołaj
Kardel, Ignacy
Giełczewski, Marek
Marcinkowski, Paweł
Okruszko, Tomasz
author_sort Piniewski, Mikołaj
collection PubMed
description Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km(2)) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO(3) and P-PO(4) loads is an increase by 20–60 and 24–31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO(4) loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO(3) loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0461-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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spelling pubmed-41324652014-08-26 Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed Piniewski, Mikołaj Kardel, Ignacy Giełczewski, Marek Marcinkowski, Paweł Okruszko, Tomasz Ambio Report Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km(2)) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO(3) and P-PO(4) loads is an increase by 20–60 and 24–31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO(4) loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO(3) loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0461-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Springer Netherlands 2013-10-24 2014-09 /pmc/articles/PMC4132465/ /pubmed/24154850 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0461-z Text en © The Author(s) 2013 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.
spellingShingle Report
Piniewski, Mikołaj
Kardel, Ignacy
Giełczewski, Marek
Marcinkowski, Paweł
Okruszko, Tomasz
Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed
title Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed
title_full Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed
title_fullStr Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed
title_full_unstemmed Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed
title_short Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed
title_sort climate change and agricultural development: adapting polish agriculture to reduce future nutrient loads in a coastal watershed
topic Report
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4132465/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24154850
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0461-z
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