Comparing clinical attachment level and pocket depth for predicting periodontal disease progression in healthy sites of patients with chronic periodontitis using multi-state Markov models

AIM: To understand degeneration of healthy sites and identify factors associated with disease progression in patients with chronic periodontitis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data on healthy sites from 163 American and Swedish subjects were analysed using two-three-state (health, gingivitis, chronic periodontitis) Markov models based on bleeding on probing (BOP), and either clinical attachment level (CAL) + BOP or pocket depth (PD) + BOP. RESULTS: In 2 years, 10% (CAL + BOP) and 3% (PD + BOP) of healthy sites developed chronic periodontitis. On average, healthy sites remained healthy for 32 months before transiting in both models. Most transitions (87–97%) from health were to the gingivitis state. The expected duration of the gingivitis lesion was 4–5 months and sites recovered with a high probability (96–98%). Disease severity as measured by number of sites with CAL/PD > 4 mm at baseline and smoking, were associated with fast progression from health to chronic periodontitis within 6 months as were gingival redness in the PD + BOP model only. With age, the rate of disease progression to gingivitis decreased. CONCLUSION: Transition probabilities for gingivitis and chronic periodontitis were higher with CAL + BOP than with PD + BOP. Smoking and disease severity were significant predictors for fast progression.