Dispatch from the Field: Is Mathematical Modeling Applicable to Obesity Treatment in the Real World?

Mathematical models of human weight dynamics have been validated in research settings, but are they applicable in the real world of clinical obesity treatment? We compared model calculations to weight loss data from 49 patients in a medically-supervised, outpatient weight loss program. A range of expected weight losses was defined for each patient based on uncertainties in their baseline energy requirements and physical activity changes. Assuming that energy intake was within the prescribed range, the observed and model-calculated weight losses were highly correlated (r=0.9, p<0.0001) and the mean calculated loss of 14.0±9.1 kg (mean±SD) achieved over 13.2±9.4 weeks was not significantly different from the data (13.2±8.9 kg; p=0.14). However, the model identified 14 patients whose weight losses were less than expected, suggesting the possibility of non-compliance. Therefore, mathematical models can be clinically useful tools for prospective goal-setting and assessment of compliance, both of which are important considerations for treating obesity.