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50 years of screening in the Nordic countries: quantifying the effects on cervical cancer incidence

BACKGROUND: Nordic countries' data offer a unique possibility to evaluate the long-term benefit of cervical cancer screening in a context of increasing risk of human papillomavirus infection. METHODS: Ad hoc-refined age-period-cohort models were applied to the last 50-year incidence data from D...

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Autores principales: Vaccarella, S, Franceschi, S, Engholm, G, Lönnberg, S, Khan, S, Bray, F
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4150271/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24992581
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2014.362
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author Vaccarella, S
Franceschi, S
Engholm, G
Lönnberg, S
Khan, S
Bray, F
author_facet Vaccarella, S
Franceschi, S
Engholm, G
Lönnberg, S
Khan, S
Bray, F
author_sort Vaccarella, S
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Nordic countries' data offer a unique possibility to evaluate the long-term benefit of cervical cancer screening in a context of increasing risk of human papillomavirus infection. METHODS: Ad hoc-refined age-period-cohort models were applied to the last 50-year incidence data from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden to project expected cervical cancer cases in a no-screening scenario. RESULTS: In the absence of screening, projected incidence rates for 2006–2010 in Nordic countries would have been between 3 and 5 times higher than observed rates. Over 60 000 cases or between 41 and 49% of the expected cases of cervical cancer may have been prevented by the introduction of screening in the late 1960 s and early 1970 s. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that screening programmes might have prevented a HPV-driven epidemic of cervical cancer in Nordic countries. According to extrapolations from cohort effects, cervical cancer incidence rates in the Nordic countries would have been otherwise comparable to the highest incidence rates currently detected in low-income countries.
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spelling pubmed-41502712015-08-26 50 years of screening in the Nordic countries: quantifying the effects on cervical cancer incidence Vaccarella, S Franceschi, S Engholm, G Lönnberg, S Khan, S Bray, F Br J Cancer Short Communication BACKGROUND: Nordic countries' data offer a unique possibility to evaluate the long-term benefit of cervical cancer screening in a context of increasing risk of human papillomavirus infection. METHODS: Ad hoc-refined age-period-cohort models were applied to the last 50-year incidence data from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden to project expected cervical cancer cases in a no-screening scenario. RESULTS: In the absence of screening, projected incidence rates for 2006–2010 in Nordic countries would have been between 3 and 5 times higher than observed rates. Over 60 000 cases or between 41 and 49% of the expected cases of cervical cancer may have been prevented by the introduction of screening in the late 1960 s and early 1970 s. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that screening programmes might have prevented a HPV-driven epidemic of cervical cancer in Nordic countries. According to extrapolations from cohort effects, cervical cancer incidence rates in the Nordic countries would have been otherwise comparable to the highest incidence rates currently detected in low-income countries. Nature Publishing Group 2014-08-26 2014-07-03 /pmc/articles/PMC4150271/ /pubmed/24992581 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2014.362 Text en Copyright © 2014 Cancer Research UK http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ From twelve months after its original publication, this work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
spellingShingle Short Communication
Vaccarella, S
Franceschi, S
Engholm, G
Lönnberg, S
Khan, S
Bray, F
50 years of screening in the Nordic countries: quantifying the effects on cervical cancer incidence
title 50 years of screening in the Nordic countries: quantifying the effects on cervical cancer incidence
title_full 50 years of screening in the Nordic countries: quantifying the effects on cervical cancer incidence
title_fullStr 50 years of screening in the Nordic countries: quantifying the effects on cervical cancer incidence
title_full_unstemmed 50 years of screening in the Nordic countries: quantifying the effects on cervical cancer incidence
title_short 50 years of screening in the Nordic countries: quantifying the effects on cervical cancer incidence
title_sort 50 years of screening in the nordic countries: quantifying the effects on cervical cancer incidence
topic Short Communication
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4150271/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24992581
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2014.362
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