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Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease
Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previo...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group
2014
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4150285/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26038751 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/emi.2014.56 |
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author | Morris, Aaron Gozlan, Rodolphe E Hassani, Hossein Andreou, Demetra Couppié, Pierre Guégan, Jean-François |
author_facet | Morris, Aaron Gozlan, Rodolphe E Hassani, Hossein Andreou, Demetra Couppié, Pierre Guégan, Jean-François |
author_sort | Morris, Aaron |
collection | PubMed |
description | Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4150285 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2014 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-41502852014-09-03 Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease Morris, Aaron Gozlan, Rodolphe E Hassani, Hossein Andreou, Demetra Couppié, Pierre Guégan, Jean-François Emerg Microbes Infect Original Article Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana. Nature Publishing Group 2014-08 2014-08-06 /pmc/articles/PMC4150285/ /pubmed/26038751 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/emi.2014.56 Text en Copyright © 2014 Shanghai Shangyixun Cultural Communication Co., Ltd http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ |
spellingShingle | Original Article Morris, Aaron Gozlan, Rodolphe E Hassani, Hossein Andreou, Demetra Couppié, Pierre Guégan, Jean-François Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease |
title | Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease |
title_full | Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease |
title_fullStr | Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease |
title_full_unstemmed | Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease |
title_short | Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease |
title_sort | complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4150285/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26038751 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/emi.2014.56 |
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