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Seasonality and Temporal Variations of Tuberculosis in the North of Iran

BACKGROUND: Determining the temporal variations and seasonal pattern of diseases and forecasting their incidence can help in promoting disease control and management programs. This study was performed to determine the seasonal variation of tuberculosis and forecast its incidence until the year 2015...

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Autores principales: Moosazadeh, Mahmood, Khanjani, Narges, Bahrampour, Abbas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4153266/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25191482
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author Moosazadeh, Mahmood
Khanjani, Narges
Bahrampour, Abbas
author_facet Moosazadeh, Mahmood
Khanjani, Narges
Bahrampour, Abbas
author_sort Moosazadeh, Mahmood
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Determining the temporal variations and seasonal pattern of diseases and forecasting their incidence can help in promoting disease control and management programs. This study was performed to determine the seasonal variation of tuberculosis and forecast its incidence until the year 2015 in one of the northern provinces of Iran. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A longitudinal time series study was conducted. The study interval was from March 2001 to March 2011. The sum of daily registered cases in each month created 132 time points. The Box-Jenkins methods were used for determining the model. The best model was selected by analyzing the residuals and calculating the AIC and BIC. RESULTS: A total of 3,313 patients were diagnosed and recorded during this time. The highest number of cases was registered in May and the difference in monthly incidence of tuberculosis was significant (P=0.007). The incidence of tuberculosis was higher in spring and summer than winter (P=0.04). According to the best model which was SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 , the average incidence of tuberculosis in 2015 is estimated to be 12 in 100,000 persons per year. CONCLUSION: The results of this study showed that in the north of Iran the incidence of tuberculosis has a cyclic pattern and the maximum incidence is in spring (May). Also, the trend of tuberculosis incidence is increasing and needs attention.
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spelling pubmed-41532662014-09-04 Seasonality and Temporal Variations of Tuberculosis in the North of Iran Moosazadeh, Mahmood Khanjani, Narges Bahrampour, Abbas Tanaffos Original Article BACKGROUND: Determining the temporal variations and seasonal pattern of diseases and forecasting their incidence can help in promoting disease control and management programs. This study was performed to determine the seasonal variation of tuberculosis and forecast its incidence until the year 2015 in one of the northern provinces of Iran. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A longitudinal time series study was conducted. The study interval was from March 2001 to March 2011. The sum of daily registered cases in each month created 132 time points. The Box-Jenkins methods were used for determining the model. The best model was selected by analyzing the residuals and calculating the AIC and BIC. RESULTS: A total of 3,313 patients were diagnosed and recorded during this time. The highest number of cases was registered in May and the difference in monthly incidence of tuberculosis was significant (P=0.007). The incidence of tuberculosis was higher in spring and summer than winter (P=0.04). According to the best model which was SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 , the average incidence of tuberculosis in 2015 is estimated to be 12 in 100,000 persons per year. CONCLUSION: The results of this study showed that in the north of Iran the incidence of tuberculosis has a cyclic pattern and the maximum incidence is in spring (May). Also, the trend of tuberculosis incidence is increasing and needs attention. National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 2013 /pmc/articles/PMC4153266/ /pubmed/25191482 Text en Copyright © 2013 National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License which allows users to read, copy, distribute and make derivative works for non-commercial purposes from the material, as long as the author of the original work is cited properly.
spellingShingle Original Article
Moosazadeh, Mahmood
Khanjani, Narges
Bahrampour, Abbas
Seasonality and Temporal Variations of Tuberculosis in the North of Iran
title Seasonality and Temporal Variations of Tuberculosis in the North of Iran
title_full Seasonality and Temporal Variations of Tuberculosis in the North of Iran
title_fullStr Seasonality and Temporal Variations of Tuberculosis in the North of Iran
title_full_unstemmed Seasonality and Temporal Variations of Tuberculosis in the North of Iran
title_short Seasonality and Temporal Variations of Tuberculosis in the North of Iran
title_sort seasonality and temporal variations of tuberculosis in the north of iran
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4153266/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25191482
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