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Seasonally Dependent Relationships between Indicators of Malaria Transmission and Disease Provided by Mathematical Model Simulations

Evaluating the effectiveness of malaria control interventions on the basis of their impact on transmission as well as impact on morbidity and mortality is becoming increasingly important as countries consider pre-elimination and elimination as well as disease control. Data on prevalence and transmis...

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Autores principales: Stuckey, Erin M., Smith, Thomas, Chitnis, Nakul
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4154642/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25187979
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003812
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author Stuckey, Erin M.
Smith, Thomas
Chitnis, Nakul
author_facet Stuckey, Erin M.
Smith, Thomas
Chitnis, Nakul
author_sort Stuckey, Erin M.
collection PubMed
description Evaluating the effectiveness of malaria control interventions on the basis of their impact on transmission as well as impact on morbidity and mortality is becoming increasingly important as countries consider pre-elimination and elimination as well as disease control. Data on prevalence and transmission are traditionally obtained through resource-intensive epidemiological and entomological surveys that become difficult as transmission decreases. This work employs mathematical modeling to examine the relationships between malaria indicators allowing more easily measured data, such as routine health systems data on case incidence, to be translated into measures of transmission and other malaria indicators. Simulations of scenarios with different levels of malaria transmission, patterns of seasonality and access to treatment were run with an ensemble of models of malaria epidemiology and within-host dynamics, as part of the OpenMalaria modeling platform. For a given seasonality profile, regression analysis mapped simulation results of malaria indicators, such as annual average entomological inoculation rate, prevalence, incidence of uncomplicated and severe episodes, and mortality, to an expected range of values of any of the other indicators. Results were validated by comparing simulated relationships between indicators with previously published data on these same indicators as observed in malaria endemic areas. These results allow for direct comparisons of malaria transmission intensity estimates made using data collected with different methods on different indicators. They also address key concerns with traditional methods of quantifying transmission in areas of differing transmission intensity and sparse data. Although seasonality of transmission is often ignored in data compilations, the models suggest it can be critically important in determining the relationship between transmission and disease. Application of these models could help public health officials detect changes of disease dynamics in a population and plan and assess the impact of malaria control interventions.
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spelling pubmed-41546422014-09-08 Seasonally Dependent Relationships between Indicators of Malaria Transmission and Disease Provided by Mathematical Model Simulations Stuckey, Erin M. Smith, Thomas Chitnis, Nakul PLoS Comput Biol Research Article Evaluating the effectiveness of malaria control interventions on the basis of their impact on transmission as well as impact on morbidity and mortality is becoming increasingly important as countries consider pre-elimination and elimination as well as disease control. Data on prevalence and transmission are traditionally obtained through resource-intensive epidemiological and entomological surveys that become difficult as transmission decreases. This work employs mathematical modeling to examine the relationships between malaria indicators allowing more easily measured data, such as routine health systems data on case incidence, to be translated into measures of transmission and other malaria indicators. Simulations of scenarios with different levels of malaria transmission, patterns of seasonality and access to treatment were run with an ensemble of models of malaria epidemiology and within-host dynamics, as part of the OpenMalaria modeling platform. For a given seasonality profile, regression analysis mapped simulation results of malaria indicators, such as annual average entomological inoculation rate, prevalence, incidence of uncomplicated and severe episodes, and mortality, to an expected range of values of any of the other indicators. Results were validated by comparing simulated relationships between indicators with previously published data on these same indicators as observed in malaria endemic areas. These results allow for direct comparisons of malaria transmission intensity estimates made using data collected with different methods on different indicators. They also address key concerns with traditional methods of quantifying transmission in areas of differing transmission intensity and sparse data. Although seasonality of transmission is often ignored in data compilations, the models suggest it can be critically important in determining the relationship between transmission and disease. Application of these models could help public health officials detect changes of disease dynamics in a population and plan and assess the impact of malaria control interventions. Public Library of Science 2014-09-04 /pmc/articles/PMC4154642/ /pubmed/25187979 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003812 Text en © 2014 Stuckey et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Stuckey, Erin M.
Smith, Thomas
Chitnis, Nakul
Seasonally Dependent Relationships between Indicators of Malaria Transmission and Disease Provided by Mathematical Model Simulations
title Seasonally Dependent Relationships between Indicators of Malaria Transmission and Disease Provided by Mathematical Model Simulations
title_full Seasonally Dependent Relationships between Indicators of Malaria Transmission and Disease Provided by Mathematical Model Simulations
title_fullStr Seasonally Dependent Relationships between Indicators of Malaria Transmission and Disease Provided by Mathematical Model Simulations
title_full_unstemmed Seasonally Dependent Relationships between Indicators of Malaria Transmission and Disease Provided by Mathematical Model Simulations
title_short Seasonally Dependent Relationships between Indicators of Malaria Transmission and Disease Provided by Mathematical Model Simulations
title_sort seasonally dependent relationships between indicators of malaria transmission and disease provided by mathematical model simulations
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4154642/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25187979
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003812
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