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The Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

BACKGROUND: Dengue is endemic to the rural province of Kamphaeng Phet, Northern Thailand. A decade of prospective cohort studies has provided important insights into the dengue viruses and their generated disease. However, as elsewhere, spatial dynamics of the pathogen remain poorly understood. In p...

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Autores principales: Bhoomiboonchoo, Piraya, Gibbons, Robert V., Huang, Angkana, Yoon, In-Kyu, Buddhari, Darunee, Nisalak, Ananda, Chansatiporn, Natkamol, Thipayamongkolgul, Mathuros, Kalanarooj, Siripen, Endy, Timothy, Rothman, Alan L., Srikiatkhachorn, Anon, Green, Sharone, Mammen, Mammen P., Cummings, Derek A., Salje, Henrik
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4161352/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25211127
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003138
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author Bhoomiboonchoo, Piraya
Gibbons, Robert V.
Huang, Angkana
Yoon, In-Kyu
Buddhari, Darunee
Nisalak, Ananda
Chansatiporn, Natkamol
Thipayamongkolgul, Mathuros
Kalanarooj, Siripen
Endy, Timothy
Rothman, Alan L.
Srikiatkhachorn, Anon
Green, Sharone
Mammen, Mammen P.
Cummings, Derek A.
Salje, Henrik
author_facet Bhoomiboonchoo, Piraya
Gibbons, Robert V.
Huang, Angkana
Yoon, In-Kyu
Buddhari, Darunee
Nisalak, Ananda
Chansatiporn, Natkamol
Thipayamongkolgul, Mathuros
Kalanarooj, Siripen
Endy, Timothy
Rothman, Alan L.
Srikiatkhachorn, Anon
Green, Sharone
Mammen, Mammen P.
Cummings, Derek A.
Salje, Henrik
author_sort Bhoomiboonchoo, Piraya
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Dengue is endemic to the rural province of Kamphaeng Phet, Northern Thailand. A decade of prospective cohort studies has provided important insights into the dengue viruses and their generated disease. However, as elsewhere, spatial dynamics of the pathogen remain poorly understood. In particular, the spatial scale of transmission and the scale of clustering are poorly characterized. This information is critical for effective deployment of spatially targeted interventions and for understanding the mechanisms that drive the dispersal of the virus. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We geocoded the home locations of 4,768 confirmed dengue cases admitted to the main hospital in Kamphaeng Phet province between 1994 and 2008. We used the phi clustering statistic to characterize short-term spatial dependence between cases. Further, to see if clustering of cases led to similar temporal patterns of disease across villages, we calculated the correlation in the long-term epidemic curves between communities. We found that cases were 2.9 times (95% confidence interval 2.7–3.2) more likely to live in the same village and be infected within the same month than expected given the underlying spatial and temporal distribution of cases. This fell to 1.4 times (1.2–1.7) for individuals living in villages 1 km apart. Significant clustering was observed up to 5 km. We found a steadily decreasing trend in the correlation in epidemics curves by distance: communities separated by up to 5 km had a mean correlation of 0.28 falling to 0.16 for communities separated between 20 km and 25 km. A potential explanation for these patterns is a role for human movement in spreading the pathogen between communities. Gravity style models, which attempt to capture population movement, outperformed competing models in describing the observed correlations. CONCLUSIONS: There exists significant short-term clustering of cases within individual villages. Effective spatially and temporally targeted interventions deployed within villages may target ongoing transmission and reduce infection risk.
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spelling pubmed-41613522014-09-17 The Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand Bhoomiboonchoo, Piraya Gibbons, Robert V. Huang, Angkana Yoon, In-Kyu Buddhari, Darunee Nisalak, Ananda Chansatiporn, Natkamol Thipayamongkolgul, Mathuros Kalanarooj, Siripen Endy, Timothy Rothman, Alan L. Srikiatkhachorn, Anon Green, Sharone Mammen, Mammen P. Cummings, Derek A. Salje, Henrik PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: Dengue is endemic to the rural province of Kamphaeng Phet, Northern Thailand. A decade of prospective cohort studies has provided important insights into the dengue viruses and their generated disease. However, as elsewhere, spatial dynamics of the pathogen remain poorly understood. In particular, the spatial scale of transmission and the scale of clustering are poorly characterized. This information is critical for effective deployment of spatially targeted interventions and for understanding the mechanisms that drive the dispersal of the virus. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We geocoded the home locations of 4,768 confirmed dengue cases admitted to the main hospital in Kamphaeng Phet province between 1994 and 2008. We used the phi clustering statistic to characterize short-term spatial dependence between cases. Further, to see if clustering of cases led to similar temporal patterns of disease across villages, we calculated the correlation in the long-term epidemic curves between communities. We found that cases were 2.9 times (95% confidence interval 2.7–3.2) more likely to live in the same village and be infected within the same month than expected given the underlying spatial and temporal distribution of cases. This fell to 1.4 times (1.2–1.7) for individuals living in villages 1 km apart. Significant clustering was observed up to 5 km. We found a steadily decreasing trend in the correlation in epidemics curves by distance: communities separated by up to 5 km had a mean correlation of 0.28 falling to 0.16 for communities separated between 20 km and 25 km. A potential explanation for these patterns is a role for human movement in spreading the pathogen between communities. Gravity style models, which attempt to capture population movement, outperformed competing models in describing the observed correlations. CONCLUSIONS: There exists significant short-term clustering of cases within individual villages. Effective spatially and temporally targeted interventions deployed within villages may target ongoing transmission and reduce infection risk. Public Library of Science 2014-09-11 /pmc/articles/PMC4161352/ /pubmed/25211127 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003138 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Public Domain declaration, which stipulates that, once placed in the public domain, this work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose.
spellingShingle Research Article
Bhoomiboonchoo, Piraya
Gibbons, Robert V.
Huang, Angkana
Yoon, In-Kyu
Buddhari, Darunee
Nisalak, Ananda
Chansatiporn, Natkamol
Thipayamongkolgul, Mathuros
Kalanarooj, Siripen
Endy, Timothy
Rothman, Alan L.
Srikiatkhachorn, Anon
Green, Sharone
Mammen, Mammen P.
Cummings, Derek A.
Salje, Henrik
The Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand
title The Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand
title_full The Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand
title_fullStr The Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand
title_full_unstemmed The Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand
title_short The Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand
title_sort spatial dynamics of dengue virus in kamphaeng phet, thailand
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4161352/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25211127
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003138
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