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Predicting risk of hospitalisation or death: a retrospective population-based analysis
OBJECTIVES: Develop predictive models using an administrative healthcare database that provide information for Patient-Centred Medical Homes to proactively identify patients at risk of hospitalisation for conditions that may be impacted through improved patient care. DESIGN: Retrospective healthcare...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BMJ Publishing Group
2014
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4166245/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25231488 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2014-005223 |
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author | Louis, Daniel Z Robeson, Mary McAna, John Maio, Vittorio Keith, Scott W Liu, Mengdan Gonnella, Joseph S Grilli, Roberto |
author_facet | Louis, Daniel Z Robeson, Mary McAna, John Maio, Vittorio Keith, Scott W Liu, Mengdan Gonnella, Joseph S Grilli, Roberto |
author_sort | Louis, Daniel Z |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVES: Develop predictive models using an administrative healthcare database that provide information for Patient-Centred Medical Homes to proactively identify patients at risk of hospitalisation for conditions that may be impacted through improved patient care. DESIGN: Retrospective healthcare utilisation analysis with multivariate logistic regression models. DATA: A population-based longitudinal database of residents served by the Emilia-Romagna, Italy, health service in the years 2004–2012 including demographic information and utilisation of health services by 3 726 380 people aged ≥18 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: Models designed to predict risk of hospitalisation or death in 2012 for problems that are potentially avoidable were developed and evaluated using the area under the receiver operating curve C-statistic, in terms of their sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value, and for calibration to assess performance across levels of predicted risk. RESULTS: Among the 3 726 380 adult residents of Emilia-Romagna at the end of 2011, 449 163 (12.1%) were hospitalised in 2012; 4.2% were hospitalised for the selected conditions or died in 2012 (3.6% hospitalised, 1.3% died). The C-statistic for predicting 2012 outcomes was 0.856. The model was well calibrated across categories of predicted risk. For those patients in the highest predicted risk decile group, the average predicted risk was 23.9% and the actual prevalence of hospitalisation or death was 24.2%. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a population-based model using a longitudinal administrative database that identifies the risk of hospitalisation for residents of the Emilia-Romagna region with a level of performance as high as, or higher than, similar models. The results of this model, along with profiles of patients identified as high risk are being provided to the physicians and other healthcare professionals associated with the Patient Centred Medical Homes to aid in planning for care management and interventions that may reduce their patients’ likelihood of a preventable, high-cost hospitalisation. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4166245 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2014 |
publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-41662452014-09-22 Predicting risk of hospitalisation or death: a retrospective population-based analysis Louis, Daniel Z Robeson, Mary McAna, John Maio, Vittorio Keith, Scott W Liu, Mengdan Gonnella, Joseph S Grilli, Roberto BMJ Open Health Services Research OBJECTIVES: Develop predictive models using an administrative healthcare database that provide information for Patient-Centred Medical Homes to proactively identify patients at risk of hospitalisation for conditions that may be impacted through improved patient care. DESIGN: Retrospective healthcare utilisation analysis with multivariate logistic regression models. DATA: A population-based longitudinal database of residents served by the Emilia-Romagna, Italy, health service in the years 2004–2012 including demographic information and utilisation of health services by 3 726 380 people aged ≥18 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: Models designed to predict risk of hospitalisation or death in 2012 for problems that are potentially avoidable were developed and evaluated using the area under the receiver operating curve C-statistic, in terms of their sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value, and for calibration to assess performance across levels of predicted risk. RESULTS: Among the 3 726 380 adult residents of Emilia-Romagna at the end of 2011, 449 163 (12.1%) were hospitalised in 2012; 4.2% were hospitalised for the selected conditions or died in 2012 (3.6% hospitalised, 1.3% died). The C-statistic for predicting 2012 outcomes was 0.856. The model was well calibrated across categories of predicted risk. For those patients in the highest predicted risk decile group, the average predicted risk was 23.9% and the actual prevalence of hospitalisation or death was 24.2%. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a population-based model using a longitudinal administrative database that identifies the risk of hospitalisation for residents of the Emilia-Romagna region with a level of performance as high as, or higher than, similar models. The results of this model, along with profiles of patients identified as high risk are being provided to the physicians and other healthcare professionals associated with the Patient Centred Medical Homes to aid in planning for care management and interventions that may reduce their patients’ likelihood of a preventable, high-cost hospitalisation. BMJ Publishing Group 2014-09-17 /pmc/articles/PMC4166245/ /pubmed/25231488 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2014-005223 Text en Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Health Services Research Louis, Daniel Z Robeson, Mary McAna, John Maio, Vittorio Keith, Scott W Liu, Mengdan Gonnella, Joseph S Grilli, Roberto Predicting risk of hospitalisation or death: a retrospective population-based analysis |
title | Predicting risk of hospitalisation or death: a retrospective population-based analysis |
title_full | Predicting risk of hospitalisation or death: a retrospective population-based analysis |
title_fullStr | Predicting risk of hospitalisation or death: a retrospective population-based analysis |
title_full_unstemmed | Predicting risk of hospitalisation or death: a retrospective population-based analysis |
title_short | Predicting risk of hospitalisation or death: a retrospective population-based analysis |
title_sort | predicting risk of hospitalisation or death: a retrospective population-based analysis |
topic | Health Services Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4166245/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25231488 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2014-005223 |
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