The ratio of cervical fluid and serum human chorionic gonadotropin as a predictor of abortion

Background: Progressions in science and technology have generated several methods for delaying preterm delivery and abortion; therefore, discovering an easy, non-invasive, practical, and non-expensive predictive factor can help us to perform preventive methods in healthy pregnant women, without any risk factors. Objective: To indicate an appropriate index for predicting abortion in early pregnancy. Materials and Methods: In a prospective study, 73 pregnant women who had a singleton pregnancy, had no complications or history of abortion or disease, and were referred to Mahdieh and Taleghani Hospitals between 2007-2009, were evaluated. Blood and cervical fluid samples were obtained thrice from all patients: at the first visit, after 1 week, and 1-2 weeks later. They were followed up until the 12(th) week of gestation. Results: Using the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, 1.62 was obtained as the cut-off point for the cervical fluid: serum human chorionic gonadotropin concentration ratio; 14 patients (19.2%) experienced abortion, and 12 women (70.6%) had a ratio ≥1.62. Of the pregnant women with a ratio of <1.62, 3.6% had an abortion. Conclusion: Pregnant women who do not show any signs of abortion and have a high cervical fluid: serum HCG concentration ratio are at risk of abortion; therefore, the cut-off point might be an appropriate index for predicting abortion in early pregnancy.