Sociodemographic Trends in the Incidence of Pancreatic and Biliary Tract Cancer in UK Primary Care

BACKGROUND: The UK incidence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is approximately 9/100,000 population compared with 1–2/100,000 for biliary tract cancer (BTC). This study explores the incidence of these cancers over time and the influence of socio-demographic and geographic factors in a UK primary care cohort. METHODS: This study uses data from a large UK primary care database, The Health Improvement Network (THIN). All adult patients contributing data to THIN between January 2000 and December 2010 were included. Annual incidence rates were calculated, adjusted for age, gender, time period, deprivation score (Townsend quintile) and strategic health authority. RESULTS: From 2000–2010, the annual incidence of PDAC increased by an average of 3% per year (95% CI 1.00–4.00%) and BTC by 4% (95% CI 2.00–6.00%). Incidence of both cancers increased steeply with age and was higher in men. BTC was associated with increasing deprivation (most deprived versus least deprived quintile (OR: 1.45 [95% CI: 1.17, 1.79.]). CONCLUSIONS: The overall incidence of both cancers is low but increasing. Variations in incidence may reflect changes in coding practice or increased exposure to associated risk factors.