The Association between HbA1c, Fasting Glucose, 1-Hour Glucose and 2-Hour Glucose during an Oral Glucose Tolerance Test and Cardiovascular Disease in Individuals with Elevated Risk for Diabetes

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between HbA1c, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 1-hour (1 hPG) and 2-hour (2 hPG) glucose after an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and cardiovascular disease in individuals with elevated risk for diabetes. DESIGN: We studied the relationship between baseline, updated mean and updated (last) value of HbA1c, FPG, 1 hPG and 2 hPG after an oral 75 g glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and acute CVD events in 504 individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) at baseline enrolled in the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study. SETTING: Follow-up of clinical trial. PARTICIPANTS: 504 individuals with IGT were followed with yearly evaluations with OGTT, FPG and HbA1c. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Relative risk of CVD. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 9.0 years 34 (6.7%) participants had a CVD event, which increased to 52 (10.3%) over a median follow-up of 13.0 years when including events that occurred among participants following a diagnosis of diabetes. Updated mean HbA1c, 1 hPG and 2 hPG, HR per 1 unit SD of 1.57 (95% CI 1.16 to 2.11), p = 0.0032, 1.51 (1.03 to 2.23), p = 0.036 and 1.60 (1.10 to 2.34), p = 0.014, respectively, but not FPG (p = 0.11), were related to CVD. In analyses of the last value prior to the CVD event the same three glycaemic measurements were associated with the CVD events, with HRs per 1 unit SD of 1.45 (1.06 to 1.98), p = 0.020, 1.55 (1.04 to 2.29), p = 0.030 and 2.19 (1.51 to 3.18), p<0.0001, respectively but only 2 hPG remained significant in pairwise comparisons. Including the follow-up period after diabetes onset updated 2 hPG (p = 0.003) but not updated mean HbA1c (p = 0.08) was related to CVD. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Current 2 hPG level in people with IGT is associated with increased risk of CVD. This supports its use in screening for prediabetes and monitoring glycaemic levels of people with prediabetes.