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The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physica...

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Autores principales: Scarborough, Peter, Harrington, Richard A., Mizdrak, Anja, Zhou, Lijuan Marissa, Doherty, Aiden
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Hindawi Publishing Corporation 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4195430/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25328757
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/748750
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author Scarborough, Peter
Harrington, Richard A.
Mizdrak, Anja
Zhou, Lijuan Marissa
Doherty, Aiden
author_facet Scarborough, Peter
Harrington, Richard A.
Mizdrak, Anja
Zhou, Lijuan Marissa
Doherty, Aiden
author_sort Scarborough, Peter
collection PubMed
description Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.
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spelling pubmed-41954302014-10-19 The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios Scarborough, Peter Harrington, Richard A. Mizdrak, Anja Zhou, Lijuan Marissa Doherty, Aiden Scientifica (Cairo) Review Article Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed. Hindawi Publishing Corporation 2014 2014-09-25 /pmc/articles/PMC4195430/ /pubmed/25328757 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/748750 Text en Copyright © 2014 Peter Scarborough et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Review Article
Scarborough, Peter
Harrington, Richard A.
Mizdrak, Anja
Zhou, Lijuan Marissa
Doherty, Aiden
The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios
title The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios
title_full The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios
title_fullStr The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios
title_full_unstemmed The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios
title_short The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios
title_sort preventable risk integrated model and its use to estimate the health impact of public health policy scenarios
topic Review Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4195430/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25328757
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/748750
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