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Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types

BACKGROUND: Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on 818 902 Italian cancer p...

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Autores principales: Dal Maso, L., Guzzinati, S., Buzzoni, C., Capocaccia, R., Serraino, D., Caldarella, A., Dei Tos, A. P., Falcini, F., Autelitano, M., Masanotti, G., Ferretti, S., Tisano, F., Tirelli, U., Crocetti, E., De Angelis, R., Virdone, S., Zucchetto, A., Gigli, A., Francisci, S., Baili, P., Gatta, G., Castaing, M., Zanetti, R., Contiero, P., Bidoli, E., Vercelli, M., Michiara, M., Federico, M., Senatore, G., Pannozzo, F., Vicentini, M., Bulatko, A., Pirino, D. R., Gentilini, M., Fusco, M., Giacomin, A., Fanetti, A. C., Cusimano, R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4207730/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25149707
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdu383
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author Dal Maso, L.
Guzzinati, S.
Buzzoni, C.
Capocaccia, R.
Serraino, D.
Caldarella, A.
Dei Tos, A. P.
Falcini, F.
Autelitano, M.
Masanotti, G.
Ferretti, S.
Tisano, F.
Tirelli, U.
Crocetti, E.
De Angelis, R.
Virdone, S.
Zucchetto, A.
Gigli, A.
Francisci, S.
Baili, P.
Gatta, G.
Castaing, M.
Zanetti, R.
Contiero, P.
Bidoli, E.
Vercelli, M.
Michiara, M.
Federico, M.
Senatore, G.
Pannozzo, F.
Vicentini, M.
Bulatko, A.
Pirino, D. R.
Gentilini, M.
Fusco, M.
Giacomin, A.
Fanetti, A. C.
Cusimano, R.
author_facet Dal Maso, L.
Guzzinati, S.
Buzzoni, C.
Capocaccia, R.
Serraino, D.
Caldarella, A.
Dei Tos, A. P.
Falcini, F.
Autelitano, M.
Masanotti, G.
Ferretti, S.
Tisano, F.
Tirelli, U.
Crocetti, E.
De Angelis, R.
Virdone, S.
Zucchetto, A.
Gigli, A.
Francisci, S.
Baili, P.
Gatta, G.
Castaing, M.
Zanetti, R.
Contiero, P.
Bidoli, E.
Vercelli, M.
Michiara, M.
Federico, M.
Senatore, G.
Pannozzo, F.
Vicentini, M.
Bulatko, A.
Pirino, D. R.
Gentilini, M.
Fusco, M.
Giacomin, A.
Fanetti, A. C.
Cusimano, R.
author_sort Dal Maso, L.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. RESULTS: The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. CONCLUSIONS: A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective.
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spelling pubmed-42077302014-10-27 Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types Dal Maso, L. Guzzinati, S. Buzzoni, C. Capocaccia, R. Serraino, D. Caldarella, A. Dei Tos, A. P. Falcini, F. Autelitano, M. Masanotti, G. Ferretti, S. Tisano, F. Tirelli, U. Crocetti, E. De Angelis, R. Virdone, S. Zucchetto, A. Gigli, A. Francisci, S. Baili, P. Gatta, G. Castaing, M. Zanetti, R. Contiero, P. Bidoli, E. Vercelli, M. Michiara, M. Federico, M. Senatore, G. Pannozzo, F. Vicentini, M. Bulatko, A. Pirino, D. R. Gentilini, M. Fusco, M. Giacomin, A. Fanetti, A. C. Cusimano, R. Ann Oncol Original Articles BACKGROUND: Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. RESULTS: The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. CONCLUSIONS: A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective. Oxford University Press 2014-11 2014-08-22 /pmc/articles/PMC4207730/ /pubmed/25149707 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdu383 Text en © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.
spellingShingle Original Articles
Dal Maso, L.
Guzzinati, S.
Buzzoni, C.
Capocaccia, R.
Serraino, D.
Caldarella, A.
Dei Tos, A. P.
Falcini, F.
Autelitano, M.
Masanotti, G.
Ferretti, S.
Tisano, F.
Tirelli, U.
Crocetti, E.
De Angelis, R.
Virdone, S.
Zucchetto, A.
Gigli, A.
Francisci, S.
Baili, P.
Gatta, G.
Castaing, M.
Zanetti, R.
Contiero, P.
Bidoli, E.
Vercelli, M.
Michiara, M.
Federico, M.
Senatore, G.
Pannozzo, F.
Vicentini, M.
Bulatko, A.
Pirino, D. R.
Gentilini, M.
Fusco, M.
Giacomin, A.
Fanetti, A. C.
Cusimano, R.
Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types
title Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types
title_full Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types
title_fullStr Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types
title_full_unstemmed Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types
title_short Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types
title_sort long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 italian patients and 26 cancer types
topic Original Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4207730/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25149707
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdu383
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