Patch Size and Isolation Predict Plant Species Density in a Naturally Fragmented Forest

Studies of the effects of patch size and isolation on plant species density have yielded contrasting results. However, much of the available evidence comes from relatively recent anthropogenic forest fragments which have not reached equilibrium between extinction and immigration. This is a critical issue because the theory clearly states that only when equilibrium has been reached can the number of species be accurately predicted by habitat size and isolation. Therefore, species density could be better predicted by patch size and isolation in an ecosystem that has been fragmented for a very long time. We tested whether patch area, isolation and other spatial variables explain variation among forest patches in plant species density in an ecosystem where the forest has been naturally fragmented for long periods of time on a geological scale. Our main predictions were that plant species density will be positively correlated with patch size, and negatively correlated with isolation (distance to the nearest patch, connectivity, and distance to the continuous forest). We surveyed the vascular flora (except lianas and epiphytes) of 19 forest patches using five belt transects (50×4 m each) per patch (area sampled per patch = 0.1 ha). As predicted, plant species density was positively associated (logarithmically) with patch size and negatively associated (linearly) with patch isolation (distance to the nearest patch). Other spatial variables such as patch elevation and perimeter, did not explain among-patch variability in plant species density. The power of patch area and isolation as predictors of plant species density was moderate (together they explain 43% of the variation), however, a larger sample size may improve the explanatory power of these variables. Patch size and isolation may be suitable predictors of long-term plant species density in terrestrial ecosystems that are naturally and anthropogenically fragmented.