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Can we predict the unpredictable?
Time series forecasting is of fundamental importance for a variety of domains including the prediction of earthquakes, financial market prediction, and the prediction of epileptic seizures. We present an original approach that brings a novel perspective to the field of long-term time series forecast...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group
2014
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4213811/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25355427 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep06834 |
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author | Golestani, Abbas Gras, Robin |
author_facet | Golestani, Abbas Gras, Robin |
author_sort | Golestani, Abbas |
collection | PubMed |
description | Time series forecasting is of fundamental importance for a variety of domains including the prediction of earthquakes, financial market prediction, and the prediction of epileptic seizures. We present an original approach that brings a novel perspective to the field of long-term time series forecasting. Nonlinear properties of a time series are evaluated and used for long-term predictions. We used financial time series, medical time series and climate time series to evaluate our method. The results we obtained show that the long-term prediction of complex nonlinear time series is no longer unrealistic. The new method has the ability to predict the long-term evolutionary trend of stock market time series, and it attained an accuracy level with 100% sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of epileptic seizures up to 17 minutes in advance based on data from 21 epileptic patients. Our new method also predicted the trend of increasing global temperature in the last 30 years with a high level of accuracy. Thus, our method for making long-term time series predictions is vastly superior to existing methods. We therefore believe that our proposed method has the potential to be applied to many other domains to generate accurate and useful long-term predictions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4213811 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2014 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-42138112014-10-31 Can we predict the unpredictable? Golestani, Abbas Gras, Robin Sci Rep Article Time series forecasting is of fundamental importance for a variety of domains including the prediction of earthquakes, financial market prediction, and the prediction of epileptic seizures. We present an original approach that brings a novel perspective to the field of long-term time series forecasting. Nonlinear properties of a time series are evaluated and used for long-term predictions. We used financial time series, medical time series and climate time series to evaluate our method. The results we obtained show that the long-term prediction of complex nonlinear time series is no longer unrealistic. The new method has the ability to predict the long-term evolutionary trend of stock market time series, and it attained an accuracy level with 100% sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of epileptic seizures up to 17 minutes in advance based on data from 21 epileptic patients. Our new method also predicted the trend of increasing global temperature in the last 30 years with a high level of accuracy. Thus, our method for making long-term time series predictions is vastly superior to existing methods. We therefore believe that our proposed method has the potential to be applied to many other domains to generate accurate and useful long-term predictions. Nature Publishing Group 2014-10-30 /pmc/articles/PMC4213811/ /pubmed/25355427 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep06834 Text en Copyright © 2014, Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder in order to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Article Golestani, Abbas Gras, Robin Can we predict the unpredictable? |
title | Can we predict the unpredictable? |
title_full | Can we predict the unpredictable? |
title_fullStr | Can we predict the unpredictable? |
title_full_unstemmed | Can we predict the unpredictable? |
title_short | Can we predict the unpredictable? |
title_sort | can we predict the unpredictable? |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4213811/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25355427 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep06834 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT golestaniabbas canwepredicttheunpredictable AT grasrobin canwepredicttheunpredictable |