Cargando…

Can we predict the unpredictable?

Time series forecasting is of fundamental importance for a variety of domains including the prediction of earthquakes, financial market prediction, and the prediction of epileptic seizures. We present an original approach that brings a novel perspective to the field of long-term time series forecast...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Golestani, Abbas, Gras, Robin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4213811/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25355427
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep06834
_version_ 1782341871203254272
author Golestani, Abbas
Gras, Robin
author_facet Golestani, Abbas
Gras, Robin
author_sort Golestani, Abbas
collection PubMed
description Time series forecasting is of fundamental importance for a variety of domains including the prediction of earthquakes, financial market prediction, and the prediction of epileptic seizures. We present an original approach that brings a novel perspective to the field of long-term time series forecasting. Nonlinear properties of a time series are evaluated and used for long-term predictions. We used financial time series, medical time series and climate time series to evaluate our method. The results we obtained show that the long-term prediction of complex nonlinear time series is no longer unrealistic. The new method has the ability to predict the long-term evolutionary trend of stock market time series, and it attained an accuracy level with 100% sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of epileptic seizures up to 17 minutes in advance based on data from 21 epileptic patients. Our new method also predicted the trend of increasing global temperature in the last 30 years with a high level of accuracy. Thus, our method for making long-term time series predictions is vastly superior to existing methods. We therefore believe that our proposed method has the potential to be applied to many other domains to generate accurate and useful long-term predictions.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-4213811
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2014
publisher Nature Publishing Group
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-42138112014-10-31 Can we predict the unpredictable? Golestani, Abbas Gras, Robin Sci Rep Article Time series forecasting is of fundamental importance for a variety of domains including the prediction of earthquakes, financial market prediction, and the prediction of epileptic seizures. We present an original approach that brings a novel perspective to the field of long-term time series forecasting. Nonlinear properties of a time series are evaluated and used for long-term predictions. We used financial time series, medical time series and climate time series to evaluate our method. The results we obtained show that the long-term prediction of complex nonlinear time series is no longer unrealistic. The new method has the ability to predict the long-term evolutionary trend of stock market time series, and it attained an accuracy level with 100% sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of epileptic seizures up to 17 minutes in advance based on data from 21 epileptic patients. Our new method also predicted the trend of increasing global temperature in the last 30 years with a high level of accuracy. Thus, our method for making long-term time series predictions is vastly superior to existing methods. We therefore believe that our proposed method has the potential to be applied to many other domains to generate accurate and useful long-term predictions. Nature Publishing Group 2014-10-30 /pmc/articles/PMC4213811/ /pubmed/25355427 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep06834 Text en Copyright © 2014, Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder in order to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
spellingShingle Article
Golestani, Abbas
Gras, Robin
Can we predict the unpredictable?
title Can we predict the unpredictable?
title_full Can we predict the unpredictable?
title_fullStr Can we predict the unpredictable?
title_full_unstemmed Can we predict the unpredictable?
title_short Can we predict the unpredictable?
title_sort can we predict the unpredictable?
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4213811/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25355427
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep06834
work_keys_str_mv AT golestaniabbas canwepredicttheunpredictable
AT grasrobin canwepredicttheunpredictable