Pretransplant HbA1c Is a Useful Predictor for the Development of New-Onset Diabetes in Renal Transplant Recipients Receiving No or Low-Dose Erythropoietin

Aims. To evaluate the predictive power of pretransplant HbA1c for new-onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT) in kidney transplant candidates, who had several predispositions for fluctuated HbA1c levels. Methods. We performed a retrospective study of 119 patients without diabetes who received kidney transplantation between March 2000 and January 2012. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the association of several parameters with NODAT. Predictive discrimination of HbA1c was assessed using a receiver-operating characteristic curve. Results. Seventeen patients (14.3%) developed NODAT within 1 year of transplantation. Univariate logistic regression analysis revealed that recipient age, gender, and HbA1c were predictors of NODAT. In the multivariate analysis, the association between pretransplant HbA1c and NODAT development did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.07). To avoid the strong influence of high-dose erythropoietin on HbA1c levels, we performed subgroup analyses on 85 patients receiving no or low-dose (≤6000 IU/week) erythropoietin. HbA1c was again an independent predictor for NODAT. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis revealed a cut-off value of 5.2% with an optimal sensitivity of 64% and specificity of 78% for predicting NODAT. Conclusions. Our results reveal that the pretransplant HbA1c level is a useful predictor for NODAT in patients receiving no or low-dose erythropoietin.