Temporal trend, clinicopathologic and sociodemographic characterization of age at diagnosis of breast cancer among US women diagnosed from 1990 to 2009

This paper investigates the distribution of age at diagnosis of female breast cancer and its association with temporal trend, clinicopathologic and sociodemographic variables in the presence of two latent clusters that are directly unobservable. Such clusters help to identify two subpopulations of either young or old patients whose etiologies are thought to be different. A large sample drawn from registry data from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program from 1990 to 2009 was analyzed using a two-component Gaussian mixture model. Evidence of a steady delay of age at diagnosis and an increasing proportion of young patients being diagnosed during the 20-year period was found. Histopathologic effects indicate that duct and lobular carcinomas differ significantly in regard to subpopulation membership, which confirms that they represent different etiologies. While the presence of estrogen receptor status in the model overlaps the effects of other important variables it is highly correlated with, it is found that the grade, extension and size of the tumor along with lymph node involvement status, race and marital status are important predictors of age at diagnosis. The results highlight the significant impacts that such features can have on breast cancer control efforts, and point to the importance of ensuring that medical decision making should use them along with an indicator of the age subpopulation a patient may belong to.