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The Importance of Bank Vole Density and Rainy Winters in Predicting Nephropathia Epidemica Incidence in Northern Sweden
Pathogenic hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae, genus Hantavirus) are rodent-borne viruses causing hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In Europe, there are more than 10,000 yearly cases of nephropathia epidemica (NE), a mild form of HFRS caused by Puumala virus (PUUV). The common...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Public Library of Science
2014
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4229113/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25391132 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0111663 |
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author | Khalil, Hussein Olsson, Gert Ecke, Frauke Evander, Magnus Hjertqvist, Marika Magnusson, Magnus Löfvenius, Mikaell Ottosson Hörnfeldt, Birger |
author_facet | Khalil, Hussein Olsson, Gert Ecke, Frauke Evander, Magnus Hjertqvist, Marika Magnusson, Magnus Löfvenius, Mikaell Ottosson Hörnfeldt, Birger |
author_sort | Khalil, Hussein |
collection | PubMed |
description | Pathogenic hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae, genus Hantavirus) are rodent-borne viruses causing hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In Europe, there are more than 10,000 yearly cases of nephropathia epidemica (NE), a mild form of HFRS caused by Puumala virus (PUUV). The common and widely distributed bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the host of PUUV. In this study, we aim to explain and predict NE incidence in boreal Sweden using bank vole densities. We tested whether the number of rainy days in winter contributed to variation in NE incidence. We forecast NE incidence in July 2013–June 2014 using projected autumn vole density, and then considering two climatic scenarios: 1) rain-free winter and 2) winter with many rainy days. Autumn vole density was a strong explanatory variable of NE incidence in boreal Sweden in 1990–2012 (R(2) = 79%, p<0.001). Adding the number of rainy winter days improved the model (R(2) = 84%, p<0.05). We report for the first time that risk of NE is higher in winters with many rainy days. Rain on snow and ground icing may block vole access to subnivean space. Seeking refuge from adverse conditions and shelter from predators, voles may infest buildings, increasing infection risk. In a rainy winter scenario, we predicted 812 NE cases in boreal Sweden, triple the number of cases predicted in a rain-free winter in 2013/2014. Our model enables identification of high risk years when preparedness in the public health sector is crucial, as a rainy winter would accentuate risk. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4229113 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2014 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-42291132014-11-18 The Importance of Bank Vole Density and Rainy Winters in Predicting Nephropathia Epidemica Incidence in Northern Sweden Khalil, Hussein Olsson, Gert Ecke, Frauke Evander, Magnus Hjertqvist, Marika Magnusson, Magnus Löfvenius, Mikaell Ottosson Hörnfeldt, Birger PLoS One Research Article Pathogenic hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae, genus Hantavirus) are rodent-borne viruses causing hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In Europe, there are more than 10,000 yearly cases of nephropathia epidemica (NE), a mild form of HFRS caused by Puumala virus (PUUV). The common and widely distributed bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the host of PUUV. In this study, we aim to explain and predict NE incidence in boreal Sweden using bank vole densities. We tested whether the number of rainy days in winter contributed to variation in NE incidence. We forecast NE incidence in July 2013–June 2014 using projected autumn vole density, and then considering two climatic scenarios: 1) rain-free winter and 2) winter with many rainy days. Autumn vole density was a strong explanatory variable of NE incidence in boreal Sweden in 1990–2012 (R(2) = 79%, p<0.001). Adding the number of rainy winter days improved the model (R(2) = 84%, p<0.05). We report for the first time that risk of NE is higher in winters with many rainy days. Rain on snow and ground icing may block vole access to subnivean space. Seeking refuge from adverse conditions and shelter from predators, voles may infest buildings, increasing infection risk. In a rainy winter scenario, we predicted 812 NE cases in boreal Sweden, triple the number of cases predicted in a rain-free winter in 2013/2014. Our model enables identification of high risk years when preparedness in the public health sector is crucial, as a rainy winter would accentuate risk. Public Library of Science 2014-11-12 /pmc/articles/PMC4229113/ /pubmed/25391132 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0111663 Text en © 2014 Khalil et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Khalil, Hussein Olsson, Gert Ecke, Frauke Evander, Magnus Hjertqvist, Marika Magnusson, Magnus Löfvenius, Mikaell Ottosson Hörnfeldt, Birger The Importance of Bank Vole Density and Rainy Winters in Predicting Nephropathia Epidemica Incidence in Northern Sweden |
title | The Importance of Bank Vole Density and Rainy Winters in Predicting Nephropathia Epidemica Incidence in Northern Sweden |
title_full | The Importance of Bank Vole Density and Rainy Winters in Predicting Nephropathia Epidemica Incidence in Northern Sweden |
title_fullStr | The Importance of Bank Vole Density and Rainy Winters in Predicting Nephropathia Epidemica Incidence in Northern Sweden |
title_full_unstemmed | The Importance of Bank Vole Density and Rainy Winters in Predicting Nephropathia Epidemica Incidence in Northern Sweden |
title_short | The Importance of Bank Vole Density and Rainy Winters in Predicting Nephropathia Epidemica Incidence in Northern Sweden |
title_sort | importance of bank vole density and rainy winters in predicting nephropathia epidemica incidence in northern sweden |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4229113/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25391132 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0111663 |
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