A system dynamics model for national drug policy

BACKGROUND: Data modeling techniques can create a virtual world to analyze decision systems. National drug authorities can use such techniques to take care of their deficiencies in decision making processes. This study was designed to build a system dynamics model to simulate the effects of market mix variables (5 P’s) on the national drug policy (NDP) indicators including availability, affordability, quality, and rationality. This was aimed to investigate how to increase the rationality of decision making, evaluate different alternatives, reduce the costs and identify the system obstacles. System dynamics is a computer-based approach for analyzing and designing complex systems over time. In this study the cognitive casualty map was developed to make a concept about the system then the stock-flow model was set up based on the market demand and supply concept. RESULTS: The model demonstrates the interdependencies between the NDP variables through four cognitive maps. Some issues in availability, willingness to pay, rational use and quality of medicines are pointed in the model. The stock-flow diagram shows how the demand for a medicine is formed and how it is responded through NDP objectives. The effects of changing variables on the other NDP variables can be studied after running the stock-flow model. CONCLUSION: The model can initiate a fundamental structure for analyzing NDP. The conceptual model made a cognitive map to show many causes’ and effects’ trees and reveals some relations between NDP variables that are usually forgotten in the medicines affairs. The model also provides an opportunity to be expanded with more details on a specific disease for better policy making about medication.