Integrating environmental, molecular, and morphological data to unravel an ice-age radiation of arctic-alpine Campanula in western North America

Many arctic-alpine plant genera have undergone speciation during the Quaternary. The bases for these radiations have been ascribed to geographic isolation, abiotic and biotic differences between populations, and/or hybridization and polyploidization. The Cordilleran Campanula L. (Campanulaceae Juss.), a monophyletic clade of mostly endemic arctic-alpine taxa from western North America, experienced a recent and rapid radiation. We set out to unravel the factors that likely influenced speciation in this group. To do so, we integrated environmental, genetic, and morphological datasets, tested biogeographic hypotheses, and analyzed the potential consequences of the various factors on the evolutionary history of the clade. We created paleodistribution models to identify potential Pleistocene refugia for the clade and estimated niche space for individual taxa using geographic and climatic data. Using 11 nuclear loci, we reconstructed a species tree and tested biogeographic hypotheses derived from the paleodistribution models. Finally, we tested 28 morphological characters, including floral, vegetative, and seed characteristics, for their capacity to differentiate taxa. Our results show that the combined effect of Quaternary climatic variation, isolation among differing environments in the mountains in western North America, and biotic factors influencing floral morphology contributed to speciation in this group during the mid-Pleistocene. Furthermore, our biogeographic analyses uncovered asynchronous consequences of interglacial and glacial periods for the timing of refugial isolation within the southern and northwestern mountains, respectively. These findings have broad implications for understanding the processes promoting speciation in arctic-alpine plants and the rise of numerous endemic taxa across the region.