A Spatial Modeling Approach to Predicting the Secondary Spread of Invasive Species Due to Ballast Water Discharge

Ballast water in ships is an important contributor to the secondary spread of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Here, we use a model previously created to determine the role ballast water management has played in the secondary spread of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) to identify the future spread of one current and two potential invasive species in the Great Lakes, the Eurasian Ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus), killer shrimp (Dikerogammarus villosus), and golden mussel (Limnoperna fortunei), respectively. Model predictions for Eurasian Ruffe have been used to direct surveillance efforts within the Great Lakes and DNA evidence of ruffe presence was recently reported from one of three high risk port localities identified by our model. Predictions made for killer shrimp and golden mussel suggest that these two species have the potential to become rapidly widespread if introduced to the Great Lakes, reinforcing the need for proactive ballast water management. The model used here is flexible enough to be applied to any species capable of being spread by ballast water in marine or freshwater ecosystems.