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Improving Google Flu Trends Estimates for the United States through Transformation
Google Flu Trends (GFT) uses Internet search queries in an effort to provide early warning of increases in influenza-like illness (ILI). In the United States, GFT estimates the percentage of physician visits related to ILI (%ILINet) reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). H...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2014
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4281210/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25551391 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0109209 |
Sumario: | Google Flu Trends (GFT) uses Internet search queries in an effort to provide early warning of increases in influenza-like illness (ILI). In the United States, GFT estimates the percentage of physician visits related to ILI (%ILINet) reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). However, during the 2012–13 influenza season, GFT overestimated %ILINet by an appreciable amount and estimated the peak in incidence three weeks late. Using data from 2010–14, we investigated the relationship between GFT estimates (%GFT) and %ILINet. Based on the relationship between the relative change in %GFT and the relative change in %ILINet, we transformed %GFT estimates to better correspond with %ILINet values. In 2010–13, our transformed %GFT estimates were within ±10% of %ILINet values for 17 of the 29 weeks that %ILINet was above the seasonal baseline value determined by the CDC; in contrast, the original %GFT estimates were within ±10% of %ILINet values for only two of these 29 weeks. Relative to the %ILINet peak in 2012–13, the peak in our transformed %GFT estimates was 2% lower and one week later, whereas the peak in the original %GFT estimates was 74% higher and three weeks later. The same transformation improved %GFT estimates using the recalibrated 2013 GFT model in early 2013–14. Our transformed %GFT estimates can be calculated approximately one week before %ILINet values are reported by the CDC and the transformation equation was stable over the time period investigated (2010–13). We anticipate our results will facilitate future use of GFT. |
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