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Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie
Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is used to quantify the uncertainty of nonindigenous fish (bighead carp [Hypophthalmichthys nobilis] and silver carp [H. molitrix]) establishment in Lake Erie. The classical model for structured expert judgment model is applied. Forming a weighted combination (called...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BlackWell Publishing Ltd
2014
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4285203/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25044130 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1559 |
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author | Cooke, Roger M Wittmann, Marion E Lodge, David M Rothlisberger, John D Rutherford, Edward S Zhang, Hongyan Mason, Doran M |
author_facet | Cooke, Roger M Wittmann, Marion E Lodge, David M Rothlisberger, John D Rutherford, Edward S Zhang, Hongyan Mason, Doran M |
author_sort | Cooke, Roger M |
collection | PubMed |
description | Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is used to quantify the uncertainty of nonindigenous fish (bighead carp [Hypophthalmichthys nobilis] and silver carp [H. molitrix]) establishment in Lake Erie. The classical model for structured expert judgment model is applied. Forming a weighted combination (called a decision maker) of experts' distributions, with weights derived from performance on a set of calibration variables from the experts' field, exhibits greater statistical accuracy and greater informativeness than simple averaging with equal weights. New methods of cross validation are applied and suggest that performance characteristics relative to equal weighting could be predicted with a small number (1–2) of calibration variables. The performance-based decision maker is somewhat degraded on out-of-sample prediction, but remained superior to the equal weight decision maker in terms of statistical accuracy and informativeness. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2014;10:522–528. © 2014 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. KEY POINTS: Structured expert judgment is applied to quantify uncertainty in Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie. Calibration variables from the experts' field are used to enable performance-based combination. In sample validation is applied to the combination of expert judgments and to the experts. Out-of-sample validation is applied to the performance-based combination method. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4285203 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2014 |
publisher | BlackWell Publishing Ltd |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-42852032015-01-26 Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie Cooke, Roger M Wittmann, Marion E Lodge, David M Rothlisberger, John D Rutherford, Edward S Zhang, Hongyan Mason, Doran M Integr Environ Assess Manag Decision Analysis Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is used to quantify the uncertainty of nonindigenous fish (bighead carp [Hypophthalmichthys nobilis] and silver carp [H. molitrix]) establishment in Lake Erie. The classical model for structured expert judgment model is applied. Forming a weighted combination (called a decision maker) of experts' distributions, with weights derived from performance on a set of calibration variables from the experts' field, exhibits greater statistical accuracy and greater informativeness than simple averaging with equal weights. New methods of cross validation are applied and suggest that performance characteristics relative to equal weighting could be predicted with a small number (1–2) of calibration variables. The performance-based decision maker is somewhat degraded on out-of-sample prediction, but remained superior to the equal weight decision maker in terms of statistical accuracy and informativeness. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2014;10:522–528. © 2014 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. KEY POINTS: Structured expert judgment is applied to quantify uncertainty in Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie. Calibration variables from the experts' field are used to enable performance-based combination. In sample validation is applied to the combination of expert judgments and to the experts. Out-of-sample validation is applied to the performance-based combination method. BlackWell Publishing Ltd 2014-10 2014-07-09 /pmc/articles/PMC4285203/ /pubmed/25044130 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1559 Text en © 2014 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. |
spellingShingle | Decision Analysis Cooke, Roger M Wittmann, Marion E Lodge, David M Rothlisberger, John D Rutherford, Edward S Zhang, Hongyan Mason, Doran M Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie |
title | Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie |
title_full | Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie |
title_fullStr | Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie |
title_full_unstemmed | Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie |
title_short | Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie |
title_sort | out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of asian carp establishment in lake erie |
topic | Decision Analysis |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4285203/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25044130 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1559 |
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