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An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25

A solar activity precursor technique of spotless event has been currently used to predict the strengths and the times of rise of the 11-year coming cycles. This simple statistical method has been previously applied to predict the maximum amplitudes and the times of rises of cycles 22 and 23. The res...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Helal, Hamid R., Galal, A.A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2013
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4295046/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25685428
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jare.2012.10.002
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author Helal, Hamid R.
Galal, A.A.
author_facet Helal, Hamid R.
Galal, A.A.
author_sort Helal, Hamid R.
collection PubMed
description A solar activity precursor technique of spotless event has been currently used to predict the strengths and the times of rise of the 11-year coming cycles. This simple statistical method has been previously applied to predict the maximum amplitudes and the times of rises of cycles 22 and 23. The results obtained are successful for both cycles. A developed version of the suggested method was previously used to make an early forecast of the characteristic parameters of the cycle 24. In this work the preliminarily predicted parameters of the cycle 24 are checked using observed values of the spotless events. In addition, the developed method is also applied to forecast the maximum amplitude and time of rise of the 25th solar cycle. The maximum Wolf number and time of rise of the latter cycle are found to be 118.2 and 4.0 years respectively.
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spelling pubmed-42950462015-02-14 An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25 Helal, Hamid R. Galal, A.A. J Adv Res Original Article A solar activity precursor technique of spotless event has been currently used to predict the strengths and the times of rise of the 11-year coming cycles. This simple statistical method has been previously applied to predict the maximum amplitudes and the times of rises of cycles 22 and 23. The results obtained are successful for both cycles. A developed version of the suggested method was previously used to make an early forecast of the characteristic parameters of the cycle 24. In this work the preliminarily predicted parameters of the cycle 24 are checked using observed values of the spotless events. In addition, the developed method is also applied to forecast the maximum amplitude and time of rise of the 25th solar cycle. The maximum Wolf number and time of rise of the latter cycle are found to be 118.2 and 4.0 years respectively. Elsevier 2013-05 2013-01-09 /pmc/articles/PMC4295046/ /pubmed/25685428 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jare.2012.10.002 Text en © 2012 Cairo University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
spellingShingle Original Article
Helal, Hamid R.
Galal, A.A.
An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25
title An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25
title_full An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25
title_fullStr An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25
title_full_unstemmed An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25
title_short An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25
title_sort early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4295046/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25685428
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jare.2012.10.002
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